China could be of great help in the search for sufficient guarantees for Israel and concessions to Palestinians sufficient to stem the radical tide. By pushing for peace and Palestinian statehood, Beijing could act as a force for creating business partnerships that, with the vision, could propel the Middle East to be an engine of economic growth rivaling East Asia.
- Francesco Sisci (Sep 29, '11)
- Francesco Sisci (Sep 29, '11)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/
BEIJING - It is possible that the Palestinians would have asked the United Nations to acknowledge them as a full-fledged state even without the ongoing wave of "Jasmine" revolutions sweeping the Arab world.
But certainly, the present drive for international recognition of a state of Palestine would have been choked in silence and neglect - if not worse - had it not been surging on the backdrop of mounting global attention to democracy, freedom and emancipation in the Middle East.
In more than one way, the "Jasmine" revolutions have had two directions.
One reaches out to the farthest shores of the Eurasian continent, China, which was supposed to be stirred and shaken into taking up the popular quest for political rights. It is doubtful that hordes of dissatisfied people will take to the streets and topple the Beijing government, but it is possible that the Arab uprisings against the Egyptian and Libyan dictatorships could inspire some intellectuals on the fringe - thus prompting Beijing's over-reaction.
This is, however, a long shot in Chinese and East Asian politics.
A result of the Arab Spring with closer consequences touches upon what has for 70 years been the heart and soul of Middle Eastern politics: the Palestinian issue.
The protests and the stand that Western countries and Israel have taken are reshuffling Middle Eastern politics. Here, until not long ago, the popular perception was that either you were with conservative, autocratic regimes supported by the West and Israel, or you were with al-Qaeda and its terrorists.
There was no middle road for people wishing for social and political improvement; going against the corrupt dictatorship meant supporting terrorists. Now, one can be both against corrupt governments and against terrorists, and this is creating a new political atmosphere in the region. It proves concretely that the West and Israel can be for social and political innovation and progress in the region, without feeding the terrorists cause.
Of this new political backdrop Munib Rashid Masri (see Palestine and a state of grace Asia Times Online, September 29, 2011) seems to be fully aware. He offers more than an olive branch to Israel.
Both in the tone of the article and in his concrete approach, he sketches a new paradigm for a political settlement between Israel and Palestine, which could be the basis of a new political order in the region. Palestinians want to guarantee the political survival of Israel, de facto rejecting decades of slogans for the destruction of Israel, and de facto want to be partners in the political, social, and economic integration of Israel into the region.
This goes beyond the recent offerings of the Palestinian Authority, and it radically undermines extremists anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric. If Palestinians are no longer the sworn enemies of Israelis, nobody in the entire Muslim world can use the Palestinian cause as an excuse to fight Israel or the West. It is a 180-degree revolution, and it makes also Masri's position extremely delicate and difficult. Yes, he was Yasser Arafat's blood-brother, and yes, he fought for the Palestinian cause for 50 years, but are we so sure he hasn't just grown soft and sold out?
Masri needs to get something very substantial in return for his overture, something beyond the issue of UN recognition of a Palestinian state. Allegedly, he has been reaching out to the Palestinian Hamas, something that could help to rein in the most radical elements on the Palestinian and Muslim front.
He similarly needs Israel to rein its zealots, who could easily hijack the process.
Many are rationally pessimistic this can ever be achieved, and there are plenty of reasons for pessimism. The revolution in Egypt, the country on which the ultimate the success of the "Jasmine" revolutions hinge, could turn ugly. Money is pouring out of the country; poverty and ignorance are widespread; long-term problems and protests are scaring tourists, the main source of income for the nation; and the prospect of a violent crackdown looms closer.
Similarly, as the drive for Palestinian statehood is likely to fail, this could prompt more anger and dissatisfaction with Israel and the Palestinian leaders who have been reaching out to the Jews.
How to hedge these risks and move ahead is not very clear from where we stand, as on both sides radical wings are rooting for more confrontation, not less. The two sides need to gain a lot more trust for each other. Perhaps the US, Europe, and possibly even Russia and China could be of great help trying to find sufficient guarantees for Israel while granting Palestinians concessions sufficient to stem the radical tide on their side.
This would entail some manner or another of territorial concessions in return not only for peace this time but also for huge economic and business opportunities for Israeli and Palestinian businesses in the Muslim world. This business partnership could in fact leaven the huge potential of the oil money in the region, transforming it into new industrial ventures.
These could propel the area to be a fast-developing engine of the world, rivaling East Asia. There would exist all of the elements for fast growth: money, resources, entrepreneurship - and peace. This can work, however, only if the extreme wings are clipped and the common people can see the concrete benefits of the new course. This in turn needs vision, skill, courage, and a lot of luck from leaders on both sides.
Francesco Sisci is a columnist for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore and can be reached at fsisci@gmail.com.
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