[The Thai Nation's editorial] ICJ verdict: Prospects for Thai-Cambodian peace

Bangkok (The Nation/ANN) --Today the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver its verdict in the Preah Vihear/Phra Viharn dispute after more than 30 months of deliberation. The ICJ decided to wrap up the case ahead of a Peru-Chile maritime dispute following the Thai Foreign Ministry's announcement last month - a bit prematurely - that the decision would come early next year. The longer this high-octane, emotionally charged case dragged on, the ICJ realised, the greater the potential negative fallout.
Ahead of the decision, Thailand and Cambodia agreed recently to establish a joint committee to work together, regardless of the ICJ outcome. This is a face-saving device to show the positive state of Thai-Cambodian relations, especially between Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Thai counterpart Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin. Thaksin has served as an "inactive" adviser to Hun Sen since the end of 2009.

However, beyond the diplomatic pleasantries, current domestic conditions in Cambodia and Thailand are factors that could either bring peace or more conflict to the troubled Thai-Cambodian border and the Asean region. As such, they could further undermine the future prospects of joint development areas of the Preah Vihear/Phra Viharn Temple and community-building in Asean.

In addition, it is rather obvious the leaders in both countries do not want to squander the chances for future joint development on land or of maritime resources in the Gulf of Thailand.

Obviously, the minute-to-minute fluidity of Thai political developments at present has added complexities and unpredictability to the ICJ ruling. Indeed, Yingluck's premiership is highly precarious. Her passivity and aloofness have finally caught up with her at the most critical hour. Now she needs to find her own exit strategies.

Across the border, Hun Sen is also struggling for his own political survival. Before the election, he envisaged the ICJ case would definitely be a vote booster due to the sense of patriotism it brought about. As it turned out, the ruling Cambodian People's Party 

won the July polls only by a small margin, further weakening Hun Sen's political leadership and public standing. The ongoing reconciliation talks with opposition leader Sam Rainsy will be time-consuming. The last post-election political crisis in Cambodia in 2003-2004 lasted nearly a year. 

Ironically, Yingluck and Hun Sen are confronting similar dilemmas. The public in both countries has questioned their leadership legitimacy and authority. They want change now, not later. Fortunately for Hun Sen, he is his own person, butYingluck is not. Therefore, the ICJ ruling will have spiral effects more on the Thai side. Any negative public perception associated with the ICJ decision, imagined or real, will be exploited to the hilt by the government's opponents, who are growing exponentially day by day. 

Unlike in Cambodia, the dispute in Thailand has dominated daily news headlines and polarised the Thai nation as rarely before. Nationalist and not-so-nationalist groups of all colours have taken to the streets and stood firm to reject any ICJ ruling if it infringes on the country's territorial integrity. Some of their leaders - academics and media followers - even believed that the ICJ is colluding with Cambodia and that Thailand could still get back the Hindu temple. This is an absurd view, but quite a popular one. Well-informed individuals, however, view the current dispute in a broader context of vested personal interests pitching against national interests under a political leadership without good governance.

The complete lack of public trust in the Yingluck government complicates further any future deal and cooperative efforts with Cambodia. In this regard, the ICJ ruling has to be carefully crafted in ways that will not jeopardise the current state of affairs after the issuance of the ICJ provisional measures in July 2011.

While awaiting today's ICJ verdict, the once troubled border has been relatively calm over the past 26 months. Ceasefires and troop pullouts from disputed areas are in place. So is the current joint de-mining operation, which began in earnest in February. Bilateral security consultations have been held at local and national levels. This is an ideal situation that the ICJ has helped to create and it must be preserved and strengthened further.

The stationing of Indonesian observers along the Thai-Cambodian border has not yet been realised, even though clear terms of reference have been established. Some kind of long-term international supervision could form part of the ICJ ruling.

As in 1962, the Preah Vihear/Phra Viharn case has today brought the brightest and darkest sides of the Thai and Cambodian national characters to the forefront. It is hoped that the ICJ decision today will put to rest the longstanding historical and cultural ill feeling. At the same time, It can sow the seeds for peaceful coexistence and joint development for future generations of both countries to nurture.

It would be a huge mistake if the verdict does not heal the past, or - worse still - weakens the current fragile environment.