By Amy Sawitta Lefevre
A Cambodian soldier smokes a cigarette at the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple on the border between Cambodia and Thailand.
By Amy Sawitta Lefevre
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Hundreds of villagers along
Thailand's border with Cambodia have fled their homes and built bunkers
ahead of a world court ruling on a turf dispute that could set off a
military confrontation and inflame political tension in Bangkok.
If Monday's decision by the United Nations court in the Hague awards
land around the 900-year-old Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia, the move
could fuel anti-government sentiment in the Thai capital.
Protesters in Bangkok are trying to thwart an amnesty bill they say is
designed to nullify self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's 2008
jail term for abuse of power.
Thaksin still looms large over
Thai politics because of his influence over Yingluck Shinawatra, his
sister and the current prime minister. Some demonstrators are pushing
not just for the bill to be scrapped, but also the fall of Yingluck's
government.
The protesters include ultra nationalists and
royalists who have used the spat with Cambodia in previous years to whip
up anger against Thaksin, with tacit backing from top military generals
who overthrew him in a 2006 coup.
"The risk of violence
increases if the ruling doesn't not go our way," Thai Foreign Minister
Surapong Tovichakchaikul, a relative of Thaksin, told local television.
"Government opponents could use it to stir the crowd. Thais must not
fall victim to nationalist propaganda, they must remember that this
issue predates this government."
The case at the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) concerns a 4.6-square-kilometre (1.8 sq mile)
plot of scrub surrounding Preah Vihear. The ICJ awarded the temple to
Cambodia in 1962, but did not clarify jurisdiction of the land around
it.
Preah Vihear, set atop a cliff in the Dangrek Mountains, is
among several stretches of the border where sporadic gun and artillery
clashes have erupted between Thai and Cambodia troops. Each side has
blamed the other for starting the fights, which have caused nationalist
outcries in both countries.
The worst battles, in 2011, killed 28
people and damaged a wing of the main temple. After regional diplomatic
pressure, both sides withdrew troops from the area in July 2012,
replacing them with border patrol units. Cambodia wants the court to
rule that Thai troops stay out of the area permanently.
Yingluck
has urged Thais to accept the ICJ verdict and said she and Cambodian
counterpart Hun Sen, a close ally who once offered the fugitive Thaksin
asylum, would keep the peace.
REINFORCEMENTS READY
That
depends on the troops on the ground. Thai army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha
said security heads in both countries were in close contact, but added
his soldiers were ready to respond to any hostile action.
"We are
in constant communication with Cambodia to help maintain peace along
the border but we are also prepared to back up our troops," Prayuth told
reporters.
That sort of rhetoric will not sit well with people living near the border, some in villages that were shelled two years ago.
"I can't sleep at night, I'm afraid of military clashes," said Loon
Sornsee, a tapioca farmer who lives 2 km from the temple. "I have to
keep reminding myself where the bunker is."
The issue is
extremely sensitive in both nations and the judgment coincides with a
highly anticipated Thai senate debate on the draft amnesty bill, delayed
from Friday because it failed to attract the minimum number of 75
members needed for debate.
The bill would absolve of wrongdoing
all leaders, soldiers and protesters involved in political unrest since
2004. Yingluck has vowed not to re-introduce it if rejected by the upper
house.
Thaksin, a billionaire former telecoms tycoon who now
lives in Dubai, is both loved and loathed in Thailand, where he won an
unprecedented two terms in office.
While still immensely popular
among the rural poor, Thaksin has powerful opponents, who used graft
scandals and claims that he was undermining the revered monarchy to
mobilize the urban middle classes against him. Thaksin denies the
accusations.
His close ties with Cambodia also riled opponents and spawned accusations he had failed to defend Thai interests.
Some experts believe outrage in Bangkok is inevitable.
"Protests have evolved into anti-government movements that will be
invigorated if Thai territory is lost," said Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a
political analyst at Chulalongkorn University.
(Additional reporting by Prak Chan Thul in Phnom Penh; Editing by Martin Petty and Clarence Fernandez)
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