by Press Office
Since our last update on the Telecommunications markets of Cambodia and Laos, there has been some new data published by these two countries" various telecoms operators. Specially, limited data has been published by Thailand"s Thaicom, which controls Cambodian mobile operator Mfone (CamShin), and has a stake in Laos" largest operator Lao Telecommunications (LTC). Q1 2010 mobile subscriber figures have also been published by TeliaSonera and Russian telecoms giant VimpelCom for their respective mobile businesses in Cambodia. We expect a fuller and more detailed set of figures to become available in time for our next update.
Based on the available data, we have ventured to make some slight changes to our forecasts for the mobile and 3G subscriber markets of both Cambodia and Laos. For example, we now believe that the Laotian 3G subscriber base is smaller than we previously thought. Further, we now estimate that Laos had around 35,000 3G customers at the end of 2009, up from approximately 15,000 a year earlier. This was equivalent to just 0.6% of the total customer base. Mobile market leader LTC accounts for around half of the country"s 3G subscriber base. The sector"s future growth depends partly on the successful launch of 3G services by VimpelCom and Star Telecom (owned by Vietnam"s Viettel).
With regard to mobile subscriber growth in general, the latest figures from Thaicom suggest that the Laotian market continued to grow steadily in Q1 2010. However, Thaicom has suggested that the total Cambodian mobile subscriber base saw a 12% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in the first quarter of 2010. According to Thaicom, the drop in customer numbers came on the back of new regulations, which restrict the number of mobile SIMs an individual customer can hold. Given that very little subscriber data has been published by Cambodia"s other operations for the first three months of 2010, it is difficult to verify Thaicom"s arguments. Indeed, fierce competition in the Cambodian mobile sector does appear to have resulted in a decrease in number of Mfone subscribers in Q1 2010. However, according to the subscriber data published by TeliaSonera (for Star-Cell) and VimpelCom (for Sotelco), both operators experienced exceptionally strong customer growth in Cambodia in the first three months of 2010.
Cambodia and Laos have swapped positions in our latest set of business environment ratings for Asia Pacific. Laos now sits in 13th position ahead of Cambodia. The main reason for the change relates to the higher and lower Country Risk scores which Laos and Cambodia respectively receive. The lower Country Risk score, which Cambodia receives this quarter reflects the way the country has struggled to recover from the lingering effects of the recession. In June, union officials announced the start of a three day strike to pressure the government to raise minimum wages for garment workers by 40%. Meanwhile, Laos" higher Country Risk score reflects the increased investment the country has been receiving. Recent months have seen several investment deals signed with Vietnamese corporations. It was also recently announced that Laos and Thailand had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the construction of a fourth so-called Friendship Bridge expected to be completed in 2012.
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Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2010: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=JCXC6882H328975&prk=99036d8c1502896b69029e54d47e4596
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