School of Vice said...
Real war between Cambodia and Thailand has broken out already since 2008, although it's been confined to specific locations along the border.
However, if the Thais were to launch a blitzkrieg offensive, Cambodia's limited resources mean that she would not be able to withstand the thrust of this all-out attack, but this does not necessarily mean Thai victory. Far from it. If this (Thai invasion) happens, the Phnom Penh regime might fall or it might not, depending on a number of factors such as Cambodia's armed forces' ability to regroup and revert to a different tactic i.e. guerrilla warfare. This is what the Thais will fear the most.
When the Vietnamese ousted Pol Pot's forces from the interior of Cambodia, Son Sen, the Khmer Rouge minister of defence, wisely retreated his KR forces in tact towards the Khmer-Thai border and, with Chinese-Western assistance, reshaped his forces into small bands of hit-and-run units. Even the Vietnamese who excelled at guerrilla warfare and were battle-hardened from half a century of fighting had not been able to defeat the KR and its resistance allies. The occupying forces could succeed - as the Vietnamese had - in set-piece battles or over-running certain base camps, but it's not possible to route a guerrilla army because its highly mobile and difficult to pin down to any specific location.
In fact, the present Cambodian commanders are better adapted to guerrilla tactics than they are to frontal wars due to their past experiences in this kind of theatre. The Thais, by contrast, are less equipped to fight such a war. They will also likely face hostility from local population because of their illegal designs over Preah Vihear and other territories along the border.
So instead of weakening, the Phnom Penh regime could even strengthen itself through local support, and galvanise patriotic fervour from among the populace against the Siamese invaders who will also be subjected to international condemnation in the process. So this all-out attack is not a viable option for the Thais, and they already know that.
Secondly, even with limited resources, Cambodia could more effectively contain a possible Thai onslaught by adjusting her military strategy to Thai attacks. If your army units are well-equipped and bunkered to defend a location, stay in place. However, if the enemy have overwhelming superiority over you and are likely to overcome your resistance, do not waste your effort and human lives by staying put. This does not mean surrendering grounds to the enemy, but more a tactical retreat to defeat the larger forces by deploying other means at your disposal more productively.
The Thais will use their superior hardware to force/bulldoze their way through in certain areas. Therefore, it would be wiser to not be their easy targets by using special units of between 10-40 men to penetrate behind enemy lines and cut-off their supply routes or neutralise those heavy equipments such as artillery pieces and tanks or armour vehicles, or even their barracks. This was the exact method deployed by Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap and it had saved Vietnamese divisions from being fed into the "meat-grinder" trap of China's PLA (People's Liberation Army) in 1979.
War is not won or lost by numerical or physical superiority alone, although obviously it helps to have these strengths in place over the opponents.
Best of luck to the Cambodian soldiers and defenders!
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Anonymous VB said...
In history, Thailand has never had any civil war, only Cambodia. You can keep dreaming forever of Thailand collapsing by itself.
There will be no large scale war between Cambodia and Thailand in this 21st century. What was happening from 2008 to current situation between Thailand and Cambodia is just due political and economical reason.
Thailand tried hard to push foreign investors away from Cambodia but so far failed. And evidently, it failed politically as well. As the result, Thailand will turn to its root and strengthen its economy, NOT WAR WITH Cambodia.
Cambodia and Thai people do not need WAR and will never want WAR each other.
What Cambodia needs to do is Keep the economy growing.
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Anonymous said...
There's not going to be any full scale war between Cambodia and Thailand. It's not in the best interests of either country to do so. Any large scale military action would lead to the involvement of other Asian countries, which Thailand definitely doesn't want. The current conflict is a political issue stirred up by Thais to induce nationalism within their fragmented country as it is. Their government and news media are all hard at work to promote nationalistic pride and present Cambodia as the evil instigator of the border issue - even to as far as reinventing their history.
Thailand already can't get their people to agree on the issues affecting their own country, so there's no way they can prepare for a full scale invasion of Cambodia without disastrous consequences. Right now, from the looks of it - and if they still continue to push the border issue with their new PM, it would just be another muscle flexing game at the border that's going to continue on as it has for the past few years.
Real war between Cambodia and Thailand has broken out already since 2008, although it's been confined to specific locations along the border.
However, if the Thais were to launch a blitzkrieg offensive, Cambodia's limited resources mean that she would not be able to withstand the thrust of this all-out attack, but this does not necessarily mean Thai victory. Far from it. If this (Thai invasion) happens, the Phnom Penh regime might fall or it might not, depending on a number of factors such as Cambodia's armed forces' ability to regroup and revert to a different tactic i.e. guerrilla warfare. This is what the Thais will fear the most.
When the Vietnamese ousted Pol Pot's forces from the interior of Cambodia, Son Sen, the Khmer Rouge minister of defence, wisely retreated his KR forces in tact towards the Khmer-Thai border and, with Chinese-Western assistance, reshaped his forces into small bands of hit-and-run units. Even the Vietnamese who excelled at guerrilla warfare and were battle-hardened from half a century of fighting had not been able to defeat the KR and its resistance allies. The occupying forces could succeed - as the Vietnamese had - in set-piece battles or over-running certain base camps, but it's not possible to route a guerrilla army because its highly mobile and difficult to pin down to any specific location.
In fact, the present Cambodian commanders are better adapted to guerrilla tactics than they are to frontal wars due to their past experiences in this kind of theatre. The Thais, by contrast, are less equipped to fight such a war. They will also likely face hostility from local population because of their illegal designs over Preah Vihear and other territories along the border.
So instead of weakening, the Phnom Penh regime could even strengthen itself through local support, and galvanise patriotic fervour from among the populace against the Siamese invaders who will also be subjected to international condemnation in the process. So this all-out attack is not a viable option for the Thais, and they already know that.
Secondly, even with limited resources, Cambodia could more effectively contain a possible Thai onslaught by adjusting her military strategy to Thai attacks. If your army units are well-equipped and bunkered to defend a location, stay in place. However, if the enemy have overwhelming superiority over you and are likely to overcome your resistance, do not waste your effort and human lives by staying put. This does not mean surrendering grounds to the enemy, but more a tactical retreat to defeat the larger forces by deploying other means at your disposal more productively.
The Thais will use their superior hardware to force/bulldoze their way through in certain areas. Therefore, it would be wiser to not be their easy targets by using special units of between 10-40 men to penetrate behind enemy lines and cut-off their supply routes or neutralise those heavy equipments such as artillery pieces and tanks or armour vehicles, or even their barracks. This was the exact method deployed by Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap and it had saved Vietnamese divisions from being fed into the "meat-grinder" trap of China's PLA (People's Liberation Army) in 1979.
War is not won or lost by numerical or physical superiority alone, although obviously it helps to have these strengths in place over the opponents.
Best of luck to the Cambodian soldiers and defenders!
----------------------------------------
Anonymous VB said...
In history, Thailand has never had any civil war, only Cambodia. You can keep dreaming forever of Thailand collapsing by itself.
There will be no large scale war between Cambodia and Thailand in this 21st century. What was happening from 2008 to current situation between Thailand and Cambodia is just due political and economical reason.
Thailand tried hard to push foreign investors away from Cambodia but so far failed. And evidently, it failed politically as well. As the result, Thailand will turn to its root and strengthen its economy, NOT WAR WITH Cambodia.
Cambodia and Thai people do not need WAR and will never want WAR each other.
What Cambodia needs to do is Keep the economy growing.
--------------------------------------------
Anonymous said...
There's not going to be any full scale war between Cambodia and Thailand. It's not in the best interests of either country to do so. Any large scale military action would lead to the involvement of other Asian countries, which Thailand definitely doesn't want. The current conflict is a political issue stirred up by Thais to induce nationalism within their fragmented country as it is. Their government and news media are all hard at work to promote nationalistic pride and present Cambodia as the evil instigator of the border issue - even to as far as reinventing their history.
Thailand already can't get their people to agree on the issues affecting their own country, so there's no way they can prepare for a full scale invasion of Cambodia without disastrous consequences. Right now, from the looks of it - and if they still continue to push the border issue with their new PM, it would just be another muscle flexing game at the border that's going to continue on as it has for the past few years.
12 comments:
I don't think Thai has enough fire power to invade Cambodia in full scale war
They got no gut at all
Thailand likes to flex its muscles and barg like a dog, but will not put up the long fight if they want to invade Cambodia. It's not going to be that easy as other assume. Cambodia already know what kind of weapons Thailand have. Thailand had used most of their weapons of big and small during those short quick fights with Cambodia. Thailand failed its objectives to capture those Khmer positions. They're already used their air force. The only thing they haven't used is their navy. If Thailand want to fight Cambodia so bad, Thailand can also leave an opportunity for Cambodia to take her land back. Thailand need to remember that. During those clashed, if Cambodian troops advanced forward, they could have extended their reach into Thailand. Thailand can't just take someone land and not getting its own land taken. Thailand can't betting on itself to win win situation. That foolish thinking.
12:44 AM
I don't think Thai air force drop any bomb during their objectives mission. If they did those khmer soldier positioning them self on the ground would be destroy completely along with a few BM21 military hardware
Thai Air Force did used the F-16 dropping bombs on those Khmer positions but didn't achieve much. Those BM-21s MRLS(Multi-Rocket-Launching-System) trucks were positioned deep inside Cambodia territory, so it would be very risky for the Thai F-16s to reach them. If you didn't know, BM-21 MRLS have a range up to 40 kilometers. The much earlier version of MRLS were used against the German Nazi by the Russian Red army in WW2. It had a very devestating effect on the German troops attempting to invade Moscow. They dubed it" Stalin's organ". It make such a sweet sound when firing off. SAMs and triple A( Aniti-Aircraft-Artillery) are normally placed closer to those BM-21 MRLS. Maybe I'm give Thai military too much information. Anyway, Cambodian military don't spas and spleach on firing off anything like Thai military. They strike when the opportunity is given. Cambodian military used their brain, unlike Thai military used their brawn by throwing all sort of punches(cluster ammunitions, 155mm artillery, poison gas, spy dogs(joke)) and got tried quick. Basically that is the dilema with Thailand military, lack of experience. This is Thai military weakest spot. The more Thailand like to show off its military hardwares hoping to scare Cambodian military to submission( part of spychological warefare), the more it is exposing the vulnerability to Cambodian military low-tech weapons to destroy them. Why do you think Cambodia appears to have very few military hardwares? Deception is one of the most essential part of warfare, my enemy. You're not deceiving anyone if you showed off what you got. Cambodia will find the right weapons from Russia or China to destroy those Thai weapons. Destroying them is alot easier and cheaper than buying or building them.
I'm sure most of us know about the much talk about Isreali's tank, the infamous Merkava 4. Guess what, the less arm Hizballaz fighters smoked a few dozens of those " Chariot of God" with the latest Russian anti-tank-missiles, which cost only a small fraction of $6 millions fully armed Merkava 4. Should I talk about the American Abraham M1A2 tanks and Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor? No, I won't. I'm a US Marine and a US citizen risking my life to protect freedom and liberty of this greatest country on earth, so the American can have freedoms and rights to practice democracy. So can't expose any disadvantage of US military weapons. I could get more than Court-Martial and dishonorable discharge. Anyway, with all the firepowers of its disposal, Thailand could have easily taken those Khmer positions, instead failed. What did Thailand achieve? NOTHING, except dead Thai soldiers, destroyed artilleries, and a few tanks. Not to mention the political consequences of Thailand attempting to create regional instability. And Thailand wants to invade Cambodia? Anytime sweetheart.
Sgt Houn
USMC
Sgt. Houn
What evidence do you have that Thailand did drop bombs with F16 Fighters. If I`m not mistaken, dropping a bomb from a F16 would be devastating for a small country. Anyone can google F16 Bomb Blast radius and conclude themselves.
"Thai Air Force did used the F-16 dropping bombs on those Khmer positions but didn't achieve much"
It`s always easier to fight when you are not following any international rules or obligated to anything but your cause. Meaning the Hezbollah can fight with no rules other than killing Israelis. Where as Israel have to walk a fine line between international pressure and its people. No difference than America with Iraq or Afgan. So for someone to suggest that Israel has the best tank and got a few burnt means nothing.
Your in the army, so when one tank get blown up by IED does that mean the American tank suck? Is America winning the war with Iraq or Afgan? Depends how one sees it. America is the leader of the world so they cannot just blow the country up into pieces or nab everyone they think is a Taliban. America have to fight with rules and international rules. It's what keep every strongest military from blowing each other up into oblivion.
I am not here to challenge your thought but to help enlighten the scenario a bit. I have plenty of friends and my bothers who have fought in Afgan and Iraq. The common complaints I hear from all of them is how much bureaucracy there is. Which hinges their effort to fight. Can you imagine if none of that is in place?
Thailand is heavily equipped and lets not forget, trained in certain areas by the Americans and a few other countries. Does that mean anything? Well, they are train to use the equipment they bought.
Very good remark and observation, Sgt Houn.
I hope Cambodian military can make full use of your experience and insight.
Thai did used F16s. Two bombs were dropped at the moving supplied trucks and 4 more bombs were dropped a few kilimeter from Preah Vihear Temple. All the bombs misfire. It did not hit the tagets as intented.
7:11AM,
I think you are completely missing Sgt. Houn's point about American's hardware, ie M1A2 Abram MBT. He is not suggesting that it is a crappy tank by any means nor did he suggest that the Merkova is a piece of junk either. His main premise is this, on any given day, these hardwares have their weaknesses with the right anti-tank missles. The same way he suggested that the Thai had resorted to using not only regular military rules, but even broken international law by using band munitions or WMD, ie cluster munitions.
His main point is, no matter how hi tech your weapons are, you can't underestimate the opponent like Cambodia who is fighting to protect, what every Cambodian knows, their heart and soul heritage of PV. If you don't take my word, take a trip to the border, and ask the troops what they are fighting for.
8:27 AM
Are their any evidence to your claim that the Thai air force drop bomb from the F-16 on to Khmer territory?
Yes! There are, but you have to do your homework.
Most of these new born are too dump to understand your article sgt. Houn. They just want to jump in the conversation but they forgot to do their homework. If you live close to the border of Thailand, you will understand about Khmer soldiers very well and the Thai soldiers too.
6:25PM
“Most of these new born are too dump to understand your article sgt. Houn”
Most of the new technologies and inventions are done by younger people, who stride for improvements! It is grandpa like you who stubbornness holds back progress and move nowhere! Anyone that does not agree with you is dumb, you will not take any input nor suggestions from others because you believe everything you’ve done is right.
All you’ve done is sucking up to Sgt. Houn; he is in the US army not in the RCAF, so he won’t be able to promote you.
I agree with most of the comments from School of Vice, and Sgt. Houn, because they see the strength of the enemy and then suggested the solution to counter them. But, I cannot stand idiots like you who resorted to name calling and verbally attacking other Cambodian for stating the fact.
Let me share this analogy with you:
If I tell you that the brick wall is hard, you should not use you head to knock it down. Does this mean that I praise the brick wall? All I did was stating the fact, what you decide to do is totally up to you. Any competent human being (I’m not sure if that apply to you) would know that they should find some tools to help them break that brick wall.
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