Be alert and ready to defend our nation against the Thai aggression if necessary. However, peaceful negotiation is our top priority. Cambodia cannot be naive that Thailand's PM-elect Yingluck Shinawatra is good looking, female, sweet talk, Thaksin's sister and be a friend of Cambodia etc. Do not think that she is looking after the best interests of Khmers, she has an obligation to look out for the best interests of her country. There is nothing wrong with that and that is what a leader of each country should do. She also has many road blocks ahead.
United Democrats Against Dictatorship (UDD) had shown sign of breaking up and the Yellow Shirt people didn't show any movement yet. The losing Democrat Party and the army commanders are also watching Yingluck's moves cautiously. The Democrat Party is in the process bringing over 100 allegations against the winning Peau Thai Party for involving former Prime Minister Thaksin in the election campaign which they said to be against the election law because he was banned from politics for 5 years. Cambodia is hopeful for a reconciliation, but there are many obstacles on Thailand's side. Our strongest hope is the International Court of Justice's ruling, which we hope to be in our favour.
Thailand might end up with a civil war soon which coincide a with the prophecy and prediction of "Bangkok Rorleay" and "Sabay Ankor Wat", if Thais cannot find ways to resolve the continued political break up. Thailand is reaching the dangerous point of democracy that no one listens to anybody anymore. Political parties and interest groups don't obey the people's choice as clearly stated in the votes and interest groups using legal and military means to defend their ideology. America had its civil war when everybody tried to break up the union; they didn't have the civil war to free the slave but because they wanted to keep the United States together.
Thailand is and will reach the point of civil if the red shirt people, the yellow shirt people, the Democrat Party, Pheu Thai Party and others cannot find a reconciliation and a peaceful solution and continue to think only about their ideology as the correct one. The King of Thailand is getting old; who will take over the thrown? These are many obstacles that Thailand will face plus the issue of Cambodia-Thai border conflict which is a fragile and volatile issue. I am contemplating that the prophecy might start forming and might become the reality. Can it be stopped if they know the prophecy? Is it fate for Thailand?
United Democrats Against Dictatorship (UDD) had shown sign of breaking up and the Yellow Shirt people didn't show any movement yet. The losing Democrat Party and the army commanders are also watching Yingluck's moves cautiously. The Democrat Party is in the process bringing over 100 allegations against the winning Peau Thai Party for involving former Prime Minister Thaksin in the election campaign which they said to be against the election law because he was banned from politics for 5 years. Cambodia is hopeful for a reconciliation, but there are many obstacles on Thailand's side. Our strongest hope is the International Court of Justice's ruling, which we hope to be in our favour.
Thailand might end up with a civil war soon which coincide a with the prophecy and prediction of "Bangkok Rorleay" and "Sabay Ankor Wat", if Thais cannot find ways to resolve the continued political break up. Thailand is reaching the dangerous point of democracy that no one listens to anybody anymore. Political parties and interest groups don't obey the people's choice as clearly stated in the votes and interest groups using legal and military means to defend their ideology. America had its civil war when everybody tried to break up the union; they didn't have the civil war to free the slave but because they wanted to keep the United States together.
Thailand is and will reach the point of civil if the red shirt people, the yellow shirt people, the Democrat Party, Pheu Thai Party and others cannot find a reconciliation and a peaceful solution and continue to think only about their ideology as the correct one. The King of Thailand is getting old; who will take over the thrown? These are many obstacles that Thailand will face plus the issue of Cambodia-Thai border conflict which is a fragile and volatile issue. I am contemplating that the prophecy might start forming and might become the reality. Can it be stopped if they know the prophecy? Is it fate for Thailand?
4 comments:
In Time of War
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Real war has broken out already since 2008, although it's been confined to specific locations along the border.
However, if the Thais were to launch a blitzkrieg offensive, Cambodia's limited resources mean that she would not be able to withstand the thrust of this all-out attack, but this does not necessarily mean Thai victory. Far from it. If this (Thai invasion) happens the Phnom Penh regime might fall or it might not, depending on a number of factors such as Cambodia's armed forces' ability to regroup and revert to a different tactic i.e. guerilla warfare. This is what the Thais will fear the most.
When the Vietnamese ousted Pol Pot's forces from the interior of Cambodia, Son Sen wisely retreated his KR forces in tact towards the Khmer-Thai border, and with Chinese-Western assistance reshaped his forces into small bands of hit-and-run units. Even the Vietnamese who excelled at guerilla warfare and were battle-hardened from half a century of fighting had not been able to defeat the KR and its resistance allies. The occupying forces could succeed - as the Vietnamese had - in set-piece battles or over-running certain base camps, but it's not possible to route a guerilla army because its highly mobile and difficult to pin down to any specific location.
In fact, the present Cambodian commanders are better adapted to guerilla tactics than they are to frontal wars due to their past experiences in this kind of theatre. The Thais, by contrast, are less equipped to fight such a war. They will also likely face hostility from local population because of their illegal designs over Preah Vihear and other territories along the border.
So instead of weakening, the Phnom Penh regime could even strengthen itself through local support, and galvanise patriotic fervour from among the populace against the Siamese invaders who will also be subjected to international condemnation in the process. So this all-out attack is not a viable option for the Thais, and they already know that.
Secondly, even with limited resources, Cambodia could more effectively contain a possible Thai onslaught by adjusting her military strategy to Thai attacks. If your army units are well-equipped and bunkered to defend a location, stay in place. However, if the enemy have overwhelming superiority over you and are likely to overcome your resistance, do not waste your effort and human lives by staying put. This does not mean surrendering grounds to the enemy, but more a tactical retreat to defeat the larger forces by deploying other means at your disposal more productively.
The Thais will use their superior hardware to force/bulldoze their way through in certain areas. Therefore, it would be wiser to not be their easy targets by using special units of between 10-40 men to penetrate behind enemy lines and cut-off their supply routes or neutralise those heavy equipments such as artillery pieces and tanks or armour vehicles, or even their barracks. This was the exact method deployed by general Vo Nguyen Giap and it had saved Vietnamese divisions from being fed into the "meat-grinder" trap of China's PLA (People's Liberation Army) in 1979.
War is not won or lost by numerical or physical superiority alone, although obviously it helps to have these strengths in place over the opponents.
Best of luck to the Cambodian soldiers and defenders!
In history, Thai has never had any civil war only Cambodia. You can keep dreaming of Thai collapse itself forever.
There will be no large scale of war between Cambodia and Thai in this 21st century. What happening from 2008 to current situation between Thai and Cambodia is just political and economical reason.
Thai tries hard to push foreign investors away from Cambodia but so far fails. And evidently, it fails politically as well. As the result, Thai will turn to its root is strengthen its economy NOT WAR WITH Cambodia.
Cambodia and Thai people do not need WAR and will never want WAR each other.
What Cambodia needs to do is Keep economy grow.
There's not going to be any full scale war. It's not in the interest of either country to do so. Any lagre scale miltitary action would lead to the involvement of other Asian countries, which Thailand definitely don't want. The current conflict is a political issue stirred up by Thai to induce nationalism within their fragmented country as it is. Their government, news, media are all hard at work to promote nationalistic pride and present Cambodia as the evil instigator of the border issue - even to as far as reinventing their history.
Thailand already can't get their people to agree on the issues their own country, so there's no way they can prepare for a full scale invasion of Cambodia without disastrous consequences. Right now, from the looks of it - and if they still continue to push the border issue with thier new PM, it would just be another muscle flexing game at the border that's going to continue on as it for the past few years.
ThightLand is in a Itchy ecomonical, polictical and social craps today..
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