25th July, 2011
Re: Sam Rainsy expects Cambodia to change like Tunisia
This is a grave concerns and I strongly suggested the Cambodia's government take the Lotus Revolution seriously to avoid bloodbath in the future. I am not talking about cracking down on them. If talking can take place to ensure their demands are met or at least the government tries to resolve/address some of their concerns. I realized that there is no magic bullet to wipe out poverty in Cambodia because we went through 4 regime changes that have put us at disadvantage position economic/education and we just started to pick up some economic steam.
The good new is that at least Sam Rainsy continues to study the Tunisia's revolution. The gap between the poor and the riches continue to be widened, there is a possibility that Cambodia will not be able to escape Buddhist's prophecy ឈាមដាបពោះដំរីនៅទន្លេមុខបួន( The blood will reach the elephant's belly at the four-faced river). There is no way that Sam Rainsy's actions were supported by only the local Cambodians. If it is, than I don't see how he can win this, except more killings and which will cause more bloodbath for Khmers on Khmers.
It is impossible to do this without super power support. If you study all the regime changes that Sam Rainsy is talking about, there is fingerpointing to the USA as the main supporter of those uprisings. Recent Wikileak's cables, released by Washington sparked questioning debate why it released such information that damaged Cambodia's government image could be released. Could the Lotus revolution be backed by the USA as the Lon Nol regime? We really don't know who will be behind the Lotus revolution but it has caused great anxiety and concerns over the potential human sufferings, economic setback, internal insecurity and the chaos inside the country if the revolution set in motion.
I disagree with Sam Rainsy assessment that those countries that went through their revolutions are the same as Cambodia. Their military and police power are independent power and supported the revolutionaries. However, Libya is similar to Cambodia without the oil. Where is Libya today? Libya has turned into civil war between opposition backed by the USA and NATO against Gen. Gaddafi regime. Killings continue daily; this is what we went through during the 70s.
Why Cambodia is similar to Libya? Cambodia military and police are controlled by PM Hun Sen, this is a fact, so there is no need to deny it. The other big question is "How much interests the USA has on Cambodia?" Vietnam and the Philippines seem to gain support from the USA regarding the Spratleys Islands' dispute with China. How Vietnam's relationship with the USA impacted on Cambodia? Where the Lotus revolution stands without support from the USA? If the USA doesn't support Sam Rainsy and his Lotus revolution then it would be suicidal to uprise against PM Hun Sen. Whether today we can slow down the thought of Lotus revolution, however we cannot stop them forever if the poverty gap, immigration issues, corruptions, and buddy system is not resolve. The countries that Sam Rainsy mentioned regarding their revolution; he should also ask where they are economically and security.
It's probably wiser for Cambodia to work together and resolve the issue peacefully. Since we alway preached this philosophy during the Thai-Cambodia border conflict. Why can't we do the same with our own countrymen?
Here is another scenario why Lotus revolution is not the option for Cambodia to put into motion. Let's assumed that the Lotus revolution drove PM Hun Sen out from power with the bloodbath; his supporters will hide in the jungle to continue to fight a guerrilla warfare for generations. If you remember during the 80s, Funcipec and KR joined hands and fought the Phnom Penh regime decades until peace agreement was signed in 1991. Is this the type of revolution you want Cambodians to experience again and again? Our country will be in turmoil, people will die of hunger, refugees will be flooded to Thailand which allows Thailand to slaughter Cambodian again like in the 80s.
Children grow up without childhood, wars will be their playground daily activities. Why don't we learn from the past history? PM Hun Sen will fight to the end if you bring force to drive him out from power. Don't forget, there are more supporters of CPP than Sam Rainsy. Election is the only option to change power.
If you lose, then you find other strategies to win but never put Cambodia at risk for more wars; we seen enough Cambodian sufferings. If you continue to have losing result in election, may be it is time for you to step aside and let other leaders in your party have a chance. I am sure you have talent and smart leaders working for the Sam Rainsy party. Don't assume that you are the only leader can get things done and never develop others to take your place. How will they grow if you don't give them a chance? How will you know that they can't beat CPP if you don't put them to the test. If you claimed election is cheated then find ways to put your people in the NEC to ensure there is fair election or work with international community to assist in monitoring the election. This is much better option than Lotus Revolution.
6 comments:
Would you like to explain or give hints on how to make changes peacefully since all oppositions have done that many times in the past. You don't seem to comprehend why Sam Rainsy decided to take this path of revolution. He, like other opposition have tried to take action by election which we all know is more in favor of CPP. Next they try in the parliament which no CPP would even give them a chance or taking seriously. Now they take it to the street and are only crush by force even more. Take it to the court? Your just continuing to shoot yourself in the foot. Take internationally? Might get alittle support. So now Mr. Warrior Blood, what other option you have left? If everybody tried every option like you have so smartly suggested; do you have anymore?
It already happened.
My intention is not to put down opposition works rather help channel their frustrations into campaign strategies; It is unfortunate that they dont see it that way. Cambodia cannot afford civil war or protest like Tunisia. Did the opposition tried everything as claimed? Did they look at the data from the past election closely? I doubted that they did. Opposition probably dont believe themselve that they can beat CPP and used cheating as main excuses to legitimize other approaches that could destroy Cambodia. There are ways to beat CPP; I will not put the strategies on this blog, but what I can tell you is this, Sam Rainsy needed to change his behavior that he is the only leader that can compete with PM Hun Sen; he needed to realize that other leaders in his party or others are as smart and possibly better chance to beat PM Hun Sen. Only Sam Rainsy can answer these questions. Is he willing to develop others. Is he willing to build one political party unite across all oppositions? Sam Rainsy need to look back and study how did Funcipec beated CPP in the past. If you look at American presidential election; there are alway new candidate running. Who would have thought that O'bama became president of United States.
That's BS don't compare United States election vs Cambodia election. The United States respects the law and constitutions unlike Cambodia, we don't respect anything except power. That's why pm Hun Sen been in the office for over thirty years. Because he used force and intimidation to win the election and with the Viet Cong to back him up. Ms Sam Rainsy had nothing to compete with him but try to get people to elect for him. There's no way for other oppositions to win against pm Hun Sen. This pm is very greedy and power hungry. He won't step down not until he's dead.
Your comment don't compare US election to Cambodia yet you want Democracy like the US is hypocrite. You keep on think like that we will go no where. If Sam Rainsy got nothing to compete then step down, let other have a chance. Every body is power hunger until dead. Do you think Sam Rainsy not power hunger?
SRP can't work with any group except their own group, so it is limited.
Who are in the army right now ?
There three groups:
- CCP
- Former KR
- Funcinpech
Sam Rainsy can't get a long with any of them.
So, how is he going to lead the country ????
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