A Change of Guard

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Thursday, 19 May 2016

Quote, unquote ...

The Paris Peace Conference or Accords of 1991 was also viewed by many, including its architects, as heralding a new era of peace and reconciliation for the conflicting Cambodian factions; a momentous and historic event that would guarantee Cambodia [at least in principle] her independence, neutrality and territorial integrity. Sadly, the sanguine and optimistic spirit and hopes attached to, or underpinning, the accords have not been shared [never mind taken to heart] by the faction established in power at the time or since. In deed, it could be said that it is this very same spirit of unguarded optimism and the rush to reconcile with the Phnom Penh regime [seemingly at all practical costs] that proved to be the non-communist factions' greatest weakness and undoing.

The Opposition must learn from this pattern of repeated cycle of reconciliatory gestures, deceptions and abrogations of pledges, and plan beyond the 2017-2018 elections if it is not to fall into the same pitfalls that buried those hopes and optimisms of the recent past. Following the last post-election agreement between the ruling CPP and the CNRP, the latter's leadership had even been buoyed and bold enough to declare to its supporters and the Cambodian people that: 'Henceforward, the ruling party will no longer be able to exercise a free rein on governing the country'!

One can project a series of scenarios as to whether the ruling party after the next election will ever voluntarily or peacefully relinquish its rein on power if it were to be defeated in that election. However, none of these scenarios is going to offer any concrete assurance that a specific course of action or development will materialise. A sensible and wise general will consider not so much the overwhelming strengths or numerical and material superiority of the enemy, but will give priority to the existing resources he has at hand and commit these resources to their optimal and practical effect; knowing when and where to strike the blow here, and there until the enemy loses its stamina and its morale, and subsequently be coerced into either taking desperate measures to salvage its ground or be compelled to accept the defeat. What it [enemy] will definitely not do [
in so far as it will be willing to embrace defeat] is where it finds that it is not being given any necessary incentive to capitulate or accept the defeat! 

Hun Sen knows he is ageing and that he can not go on ruling the country for ever. However, he is also human, and most importantly, a human creature of particular habits that are not shared to quite the same intensity or extent in the DNA make-up of most humans! He has been grooming his children to succeed him for many years, and he and they have all the wealth and power to ensure that the succession will proceed as planned. But, the next general election and beyond will also be a defining phase for the Hun dynasty, and perhaps also a moment of truth for Hun Sen personally. Yet, again this scenario will depend on the foresight and clear-headedness of the Opposition's leadership and how well it reads the challenges presented, their natures and opportunities - 
School of Vice       

'A fool learns from experience, a wise man learns from history.'


Anonymous said...

This is the full onslaught to eliminate the obstacles for cpp to rig the election and there is nothing can stop it. Unless there is very very drastic change to remove this cancer.

Anonymous said...

CNRP deals with ah kwak it is like dealing with youns

Anonymous said...

A credible strategy is to mobilize people's power to topple this fucking regime.

Anonymous said...

The Arab Springs did not have the " tools " Cambodia has, the 1991 Peace Accords.
The CNRP must bring out the Accords'spirit and maximize its use.

Anonymous said...

Dear School of Vice,

I for one appreciate your analysis with possible implications of the 1991 Peace Accords.
Furthermore, I feel the timing of your posting is somehow appropriate.

As I have indicated all along, the elusive change we are after cannot materialize, let alone
sustained without the synergetic efforts of the Khmer people and the Signatories.

I strongly hope the leaders of the CNRP would propel the national struggle with this powerful engine of synergy.


A Khmer Patriot