CAMBODIA
International Community Must Burn Bridges With
Illegitimate Government And Help Ensure Democratic Elections
Revelations
this week from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) on the state of
electoral lists in Cambodia show
that the country is run by an illegitimate government which has maintained
power over the decades through falsified elections.
The
conclusions of the enquiry driven by the US non-government
organization dedicated to promoting democracy globally, indicate conclusively
that recent elections in Cambodia
rest on electoral lists that have been manipulated and falsified to an extent
that destroys the concept of universal suffrage. The will of the people has
been at best obscured and at worst denied at successive elections.
The
moment has now come to acknowledge that the current government in Phnom Penh, controlled by
the same party (Cambodian People’s Party) for 34 years and by the same prime
minister (Hun Sen) for 28 years, has no legitimacy.
According
to the discredited National Election Committee (NEC), the ruling CPP won
63% of the votes at the last communal elections on June 1, 2012, versus 31% for
the united opposition made up of the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and the
Human Rights Party (HRP).
If
the electoral lists hadn't been falsified, but established in an honest and
transparent manner to allow the popular will to be expressed via universal
suffrage, the results would have been significantly different.
At
a cautious, minimum estimate, the irregularities found by
the NDI imply the following distortions:
1-
An increase in the number of votes attributed to the CPP
of 10% through the use of fictional or phantom voters. These voters
who only exist on paper are an automatic reservoir of support for the
ruling party. The NDI found that “10.4% of names on the (official) voter
list were unknown.” In these calculations, I assume that almost all
these fraudulent votes accrued to the CPP.
2-
An increase in the number of votes attributed to the CPP of a further
10% from the 25.8% of names who are on the electoral register which belong
to people who, in all likelihood, won’t vote at the assigned
place. The names of the absent people are often used to create votes for
the CPP by passing off one person as another, meaning impersonation through
fraudulent voter identification documents. I am cautious and take only 10%
which is less than half of the figure given by the NDI as representing CPP
fraudulent support. According to the NDI, “17.9% of names on the list exist but
live most of the time in another location; 7.4% have permanently
relocated, and 0.5% were confirmed as dead.”
3-
A reduction in the number of votes cast for the opposition by at least
10% out of the 17.1% of citizens who were eligible but not registered
or de-registered. Here I take a little more than half the NDI figure as
representing lost opposition votes. Non-inclusion on the electoral
register is, in the first place, the result of political and administrative
discrimination at first enrolment, when citizens known to be opposition
supporters meet insurmountable administrative problems with a village or
commune chief who favors the CPP (98% of cases). Even once
enrolled on the register, electors can suddenly lose their right to vote
through the selective suppression of names by the NEC, which affects only the
opposition. Some of the removals are even more surprising as they concern
citizens who voted in the elections of 2008 and/or 2012. This is
effectively disenfranchisement and shows that the NEC is carrying out political
cleansing for the CPP. According to the NDI, "10.8% of eligible citizens who think they are registered were not found on
the voter registry. Further,
7.8% of eligible citizens are currently unregistered even though they said they
voted in the 2008 and/or 2012 elections."
4- The
prevention of a potential increase of opposition votes of at least
10% by creating all sorts of difficulties for voters
on election day. This is done through organised confusion along
with political and administrative discrimination against opposition
supporters, notably in the issuing of identity documents and in tolerance
of inaccurate information. According to the NDI, "Voter data (in
2012/2013) is less accurate than in 2008. Only 63% of records show
matching data for date of birth, compared to 78.9% in 2008; and 86.4% of names
match, compared to 87.8% in 2008." Discriminatory
measures aim to obscure the existence of those citizens who are,
or are suspected of being, supporters of the opposition in order to
prevent them from voting. The complex administrative procedures put
in place by the NEC have contributed to a continuous decline in voter turnout
from over 90% in 1993 (elections organised by the United Nations) to 60% (including
ghost and other fake or fraudulent voters) in 2012. Lower turnout
automatically penalizes the opposition. The CPP uses the resources of state to
get its supporters to the polls and make sure they are in the right place
to vote. Opposition supporters face all manner of administrative obstacles.
In consequence,
by partly correcting the impact of some of the above-exposed election
irregularities, the result of a democratic, transparent and honest election
would have been as follows:
- Ruling CPP: 63% - 10% - 10% = 43%
- Opposition SRP + HRP: 31% + 10% +
10% = 51%
The
scope of changes made to the figures corresponds to the scale of the
irregularities and anomalies found by the NDI in the electoral register, which
are sufficient to completely overturn the expression of the popular will.
The
NDI said that there is "a dire need for fundamental change in the
voter registration and list compilation process in Cambodia to ensure the right to
vote for all eligible citizens and to prevent ghost voters and potential for
manipulation and fraud." Rather than the NEC, which is controlled by
members of the ruling CPP, an independent and professional body
should carry out voter registration, the NDI said.
New
electoral lists are clearly needed if Cambodia’s vote is to be
meaningful. The experience of Bangladesh
has shown that this can be done. With cross-party political will and the
support of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), a new high-quality
electoral register for over 80 million Bangladeshi voters was created in a
matter of eight months in 2008.
To allow
the Cambodian people to express itself and to let the country elect a
legitimate government, the international community must increase the pressure
on the authorities in Phnom Penh
to accept the recommendations of the United Nations issued in 2012 for the
organisation of this year’s elections. These UN recommendations are underscored
by the NDI which details the steps to be taken to produce an
electoral register of sufficient quality to allow elections worthy of the name.
Please
help bring about democracy in Cambodia
through free and fair elections so as to render justice to the Cambodian people
whose will has been distorted for so long.
Sam
Rainsy
Cambodia’s opposition
leader
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