2013 to become testing year for opposition leader Sam Rainsy

Opposition Sam Rainsy Party leader

By: Nguon Serath

PHNOM PENH (The Cambodia Herald) - As he started his political career in France, will the self-exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy end his political life there since his party has so far failed to find a way out for his return to be actively involved in Cambodia’s politics ahead of 2013 national elections?

Sam Rainsy is now abroad to avoid imprisonment after the controversial courts of Cambodia found him guilty of uprooting Cambodia-Vietnam border posts and falsifying the map. The opposition is now trying to secure his return by seeking a royal pardon. However, the efforts have failed so far.

The upcoming elections which will be held on 23 July 2013 are  crucial because the more than 9 million registered voters will cast their votes to elect 123 members of the National Assembly who, in turn, will choose the Prime Minister. The election can also be a test of whether the political life of opposition leader Sam Rainsy can move forward or come to an end if he is able to participate in the election.

Sam Rainsy, well known during his time as finance minister and later a protest leader in the 1990s, is now at the crossroads and his political life is hanging in the balance.

Nearly 18 years after he formed his own political party, the Khmer Nation Party, in 1995, which was later called the Sam Rainsy Party, the opposition leader faces huge political uncertainty. His team knows about this and may be well prepared for a future without him.

As an outspoken opposition leader, Sam Rainsy was a well-known politician whose popularity could  compete with Prime Minister Hun Sen, the strongman of Cambodia. He has made remarkable contributions to the fledgling democracy of the Kingdom. And thanks to his popularity, his party gained more seats in every national election starting from 15 seats in 1998 to 24 in 2003 and 26 in 2008 in the 123-seat National Assembly.

It is a remarkable increase but has failed to pose a real threat to the ruling party (the Cambodian People’s Party) of Prime Minister Hun Sen. As his party has only 26 seats in the 123-seat National Assembly, his party cannot do anything to make the balance of power and democracy more vivid.

Consequently, the ruling party can make any decision in its interest.

As his political life still has a long way to go to challenge Hun Sen, Sam Rainsy and his team have to secure his return ahead of the national elections. Otherwise, he will become a successful political starter who fails halfway.

Born in 1949, Sam Rainsy is now 64 which is already higher than the life expectancy of Cambodia (62.5 years). If he can not join the 2013 elections, it means that he has to wait for another five years when he reaches 69. Thus, he is quite old by Cambodia’s standards.

In 2005, Sam Rainsy was lucky enough to get a royal pardon from the King after Hun Sen agreed to make the request. He came back to Cambodia in February 2006 to join the commune elections in 2007 and the parliamentary elections in 2008.

However, now it is quite different. He could not join the 2012 elections and there is little chance for a royal pardon ahead of the 2013 elections as Hun Sen has made it clear that he will not make the request to the King for granting a royal pardon.

If nothing changes from now to July, Sam Rainsy will not be able to attend the upcoming elections and 2013 will be remembered as the year of darkness of his political life.