Buddhist monks walking
in front of the Peace Palace during the 45th Asean Foreign Ministers'
Meeting in Phnom Penh. Photo courtesy: AFP
Asean flags in front of the Peace Palace during the 45th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Phnom Penh. Photo courtesy: AFP
By Michelle Fitzpatrick
PHNOM PENH, July 8, 2012 (AFP) -- Efforts to ease tensions in the
South China Sea will dominate this week's Asian security dialogue in
Cambodia, analysts say, while the US will be at pains to stress it seeks
cooperation with China.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joins the ASEAN Regional Forum
in Phnom Penh on Thursday, a few days after foreign ministers from
across Southeast Asia open proceedings, with counterparts from China,
Japan, the Koreas and Australia also set to attend.
Friction over competing claims in the South China Sea promises to be
the hot button issue as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) holds talks on Monday -- before opening meetings to
include all 27 invited countries.
Manila is leading a push for ASEAN to unite to persuade China to
accept a "code of conduct" (COC) in the sea, where tensions have flared
recently with both Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing of
aggressive behaviour.
China prefers to deal with the claimants individually as it seeks to
extend its writ over the resource-rich and strategically important area.
"This is make or break time for ASEAN members," said Carl Thayer, a
politics professor and Southeast Asia securities expert at the
University of New South Wales in Australia.
"They have set this month as their self-imposed deadline to come up with a draft COC. There could be progress."
China, Taiwan and ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and
Malaysia have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea,
home to vital shipping lanes and believed to be rich in oil and gas
deposits.
China recently angered Vietnam by inviting bids for exploration of
oil blocks in contested waters, sparking protests in Hanoi earlier this
month, while Beijing and Manila are locked in a tense standoff over a
disputed shoal.
At their last summit in April, ASEAN countries were divided over when
to include Beijing in discussions about the draft code of conduct,
leading to a "big disagreement", Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del
Rosario said at the time.
But the bloc is still hoping to reach an agreement with China by the
end of the year, 10 years after first committing to creating a legally
binding framework for resolving disputes.
US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, said
late last month he saw momentum on the issue after noticing "an increase
in diplomacy" between ASEAN and China on a potential code of conduct.
The US recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and
Vietnam, and the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will
be "the elephant in the room" this week, according to Ernie Bower of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Amid concerns that the US's renewed focus on Asia could antagonise
China ahead of a leadership transition this year, Clinton is expected
"to downplay US-China friction", Bower said.
Instead, she will "be at pains to advance US-China cooperation as a main foreign policy objective", agreed Thayer.
With that in mind, Clinton may be less outspoken on the South China
Sea issue than she was at a regional summit in 2010, when she angered
Beijing by saying the US had a "national interest" in open access to the
sea.
"Don't look for fireworks from Secretary Clinton in Phnom Penh," said Bower.
"Look for quiet strength, behind the scenes support for ASEAN
positions... but nothing overt or muscle-heavy from the United States."
Clinton will also want to reassure Asian counterparts that the US is
committed to the region and is not just seeking to counter China.
"Secretary Clinton will endeavour to advance a raft of proposals to
underscore that the US has much broader interests in Southeast Asian
than military rebalancing," said Thayer.
Her efforts will start even before she arrives in Cambodia, with a
quick visit to Hanoi, where she will meet with US and Vietnamese
business representatives, and a stop-off in Laos, where she will become
the first top US diplomat to visit the communist-run country in 57
years.
After the security forum concludes, Clinton will lead a large US
delegation to a business forum in Cambodia's tourist hub of Siem Reap on
Friday.
ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- a grouping of
nearly 600 million people from disparate economic and political systems.
The bloc has often been dismissed as a talking shop but it has
assumed new strategic importance in light of Washington's foreign policy
"pivot" to Asia and the economic rise of China in recent years.
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