A Change of Guard

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Thursday 22 December 2011

Uncertain Future for North Korea: Analysts


Pyongyang citizens grieve as they visit a portrait of late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il on display in the plaza of the Pyongyang Indoor Stadium in Pyongyang, North Korea, December 21, 2011. Photo: AP

Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Sok Khemara, VOA Khmer | Washington, DC

"Competition between North Korean power brokers could destabilize the country and the region."

The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has triggered a lot of questions about the country’s future, especially over issues of security, stability, political analysts in Cambodia and the US said this week.
Kim died Saturday of a heart attack, and while it appears his son, Kim Jong-un, will succeed him, there are questions over an internal political crisis and whether the people will accept their new leader, said Lao Monghay, an independent analyst.

“The transitional period is hard,” he said. “Outsiders seem not to know who will continue to hold power and what the policies of the transition will be.”

Cambodia has good relations with North Korea that stem from close ties between the former king, Norodom Sihanouk, and former leader Kim Il-sung.

Chheang Vannarith, executive director of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace, said the death of Kim Jung-il brings about an unclear situation for North Korea.

“We don’t exactly know about the future of North Korea, about who has real power in internal and external politics,” he said. “We see that [Kim’s] son was installed as his successor, but what of the army commanders and politicians, do they have any opinions? Do they still support his son? In internal politics, as well as international politics, there is always mutual competition for power.”

Competition between North Korean power brokers could destabilize the country and the region, he added.

Nick Zahn, a fellow with the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said Kim Jong-un may move to consolidate power, leading to more concerns over stability. It is also unclear how US relations with North Korea will change. Diplomacy will slow, he said, as Kim Jong-un consolidates power.

While the possibility of power grabs and instability are real, the leadership change could mean a difference to North Koreans, said John Ciorciary, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan.

“Things may get even worse before they get better for the hapless North Korean people, but at least his passing opens the possibility for positive change,” he said. “Outsiders should be on the lookout for small openings to engage with reformists and empower them.”

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Uncertain future for cambodia, doesn't need an analyst to analyze it. With hun sen being the prime minister of cambodia, things continue to get worse and no international communities going to interfere. Khmer have to fight it own battles.

Anonymous said...

From this picture alone it tell us a lot about humanity and their leaders.When people are kept in the dark all they can see is what they are allowed to be seen.Their knowledge horizon of the world is limited. This is how CPP, Hanoi's puppet installed government, is good at by using this politics.They also see freedom as their number one enimy for freedom and liberty would lead people to a new faculty of knowledge where people can question things in life between right and wrong.
On the contrary South Korean is an advanced society of their technological-know-how and successful economy.
We Cambodian can achieve more if we will be free from dictator,we can show our true talent like our ancestor did and we can achieve what South Korean do.

Freedom means free yourself from the darkness.It means you have a pair of eyes that is free to see everything.

Without freedom the universe means nothing.


True Khmer