- Published: 10/12/2009
- Bangkok Post
Despite some rough patches in relations between PM Abhisit Vejjajiva, Defence Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda, the army is likely to grit its teeth and bear the burden of its alliance with the Democrat-led government _ at least until it safely sees Deputy C-in-C Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha replace Gen Anupong in the top post.
Bonding well: Deputy army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha (left) and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva greet each other. A dark horse candidate for the top army position is Gen Piroon Paewpolsong, the army's chief-of-staff (right).
Friction was felt when PM Abhisit seemed to go after former chief of police Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwon, the defence minister's younger brother, right up until Pol Gen Patcharawat was dismissed from duty just weeks after his Sept 30 official retirement. The order was retroactive.
Gen Prawit reportedly was so incensed by the ``loss of face and dignity'' that he considered quitting his cabinet post. Only Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban, who has been serving as the emotional glue keeping the government and the army together, managed to convince him to stay on.
The rumour that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) wanted the government to replace Gen Prawit with Gen Saprang Kalayanamitr _ retired deputy army chief and one of the engineers of the Sept 19, 2006 coup _ as defence minister hasn't helped matters, either.
However, the army has little choice now but to stick with the Democrat-led government. The armed forces know that if they cut the government loose and let it battle the red shirts and Thaksin Shinawatra unaided, they will have to face the dreadful prospect of a House dissolution soon. Next would be a new general election and the almost sure-fire triumph at the polls of the opposition Puea Thai Party.
According to an unofficial poll conducted in secret by a military unit, if an election is called, the Puea Thai Party could end up with as many as 290-300 MPs while the Democrats would tally only about 150 seats.
If the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai gets to form a government, Gen Prayuth's chances of commanding the army would be over.
As an ``heir'' to the coup-making Council for National Security, Gen Prayuth has not hidden his stance in opposing former premier Thaksin. He is also known as a soldier who is not so fond of ``the reds''.
Although the relationship between PM Abhisit and Gen Prawit plus Gen Anupong has cooled somewhat, the premier has maintained close ties with Gen Prayuth. Mr Abhisit reportedly phones Gen Prayuth several times a day to check on updates of events, to pass on messages to Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong, as well as to solicit advice on relevant matters. It is believed Mr Abhisit trusts that Gen Prayuth will remain loyal.
``Gen Prayuth has a significant role to play,'' PM Abhisit once said.
Gen Prayuth, 55, now chairs Class 12 of the Armed Forces Preparatory School. Due to retire in 2014, the deputy army chief is known as one of the Queen's Guards, as he started his military career in the Royal Infantry 11.
Considering the circumstances, the consensus is unanimous that if there is a change of guard politically, Gen Prayuth's chances of attaining the army commander's post will be nil. Which explains why the interests of both the army and the Democrat Party are aligned for now, and that means keeping the current government in power for as long as possible. If the scenario is realised and Gen Prayuth can finally take over from Gen Anupong as the army commander-in-chief, then there is a likelihood that the general will serve as a pillar for the Democrat Party to lean on for a long time.
``Gen Prawit's morale is much improved now. He won't quit his post because he does not want the government to run into trouble which would affect Gen Prayuth's future prospects,'' said Gen Nopadol Inthapanya, secretary-general and friend of Gen Prawit.
This has given rise to speculation that Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong have a gentleman's agreement with Deputy PM Suthep that they would gloss over any disagreements for now and continue to support the government at least until next October, by which time Gen Prayuth would be securely in the top commanding post. Considering the convenient alliance, it is no surprise then that the army under the leadership of the ``Three Musketeers'' _ defence minister, army chief and deputy army chief _ has given its full backing to the government in combating the red shirts.
Every time there is a red rally, the army would propose that the Internal Security Act be applied, with 10,000 troops deployed to keep order. Even during normal times, as many as 150 soldiers are deployed to stand guard at Government House.
Even with the alliance firmly in place, it is believed that Gen Anupong is not putting all his eggs in one basket.
As a contingency measure in case things do not turn out as planned, Gen Piroon Paewpolsong, the army's chief-of-staff, is seen as a possible replacement candidate for the army commander.
Gen Piroon hails from the same Class 10 as Gen Anupong, which means he is also a classmate of Thaksin.
It is believed Gen Piroon is a neutral candidate who can be accepted by all factions, if such acceptance turns out to be needed.
Gen Piroon can be the dark horse that gets the trophy on one condition _ if Puea Thai becomes the government _ even though he is due for retirement in two years' time, i.e. in 2011.
Another advantage of Gen Piroon, who has advanced in his career from the cavalry, is that he is regarded as one of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's proteges. The president of the Privy Council banked on Gen Piroon to make his dream of seeing the set-up of the new 3rd Cavalry Division in Khon Kaen come true. Gen Prem had reportedly made a remark to leading soldiers that, ``If I see the 3rd Cavalry Division before I die, I will die peacefully.''
There is only one loose end to the plan, and that is: Gen Prayuth and Gen Piroon might develop a sense of rivalry to the point where they might be unable to cooperate well.
At the moment, however, Gen Prayuth remains the No.1 candidate. How long will his star shine? Will the government-army alliance stay in place long enough to see him through? Only one thing is certain: the fates of PM Abhisit and Gen Prayuth are intertwined.
The rumour that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) wanted the government to replace Gen Prawit with Gen Saprang Kalayanamitr _ retired deputy army chief and one of the engineers of the Sept 19, 2006 coup _ as defence minister hasn't helped matters, either.
However, the army has little choice now but to stick with the Democrat-led government. The armed forces know that if they cut the government loose and let it battle the red shirts and Thaksin Shinawatra unaided, they will have to face the dreadful prospect of a House dissolution soon. Next would be a new general election and the almost sure-fire triumph at the polls of the opposition Puea Thai Party.
According to an unofficial poll conducted in secret by a military unit, if an election is called, the Puea Thai Party could end up with as many as 290-300 MPs while the Democrats would tally only about 150 seats.
If the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai gets to form a government, Gen Prayuth's chances of commanding the army would be over.
As an ``heir'' to the coup-making Council for National Security, Gen Prayuth has not hidden his stance in opposing former premier Thaksin. He is also known as a soldier who is not so fond of ``the reds''.
Although the relationship between PM Abhisit and Gen Prawit plus Gen Anupong has cooled somewhat, the premier has maintained close ties with Gen Prayuth. Mr Abhisit reportedly phones Gen Prayuth several times a day to check on updates of events, to pass on messages to Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong, as well as to solicit advice on relevant matters. It is believed Mr Abhisit trusts that Gen Prayuth will remain loyal.
``Gen Prayuth has a significant role to play,'' PM Abhisit once said.
Gen Prayuth, 55, now chairs Class 12 of the Armed Forces Preparatory School. Due to retire in 2014, the deputy army chief is known as one of the Queen's Guards, as he started his military career in the Royal Infantry 11.
Considering the circumstances, the consensus is unanimous that if there is a change of guard politically, Gen Prayuth's chances of attaining the army commander's post will be nil. Which explains why the interests of both the army and the Democrat Party are aligned for now, and that means keeping the current government in power for as long as possible. If the scenario is realised and Gen Prayuth can finally take over from Gen Anupong as the army commander-in-chief, then there is a likelihood that the general will serve as a pillar for the Democrat Party to lean on for a long time.
``Gen Prawit's morale is much improved now. He won't quit his post because he does not want the government to run into trouble which would affect Gen Prayuth's future prospects,'' said Gen Nopadol Inthapanya, secretary-general and friend of Gen Prawit.
This has given rise to speculation that Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong have a gentleman's agreement with Deputy PM Suthep that they would gloss over any disagreements for now and continue to support the government at least until next October, by which time Gen Prayuth would be securely in the top commanding post. Considering the convenient alliance, it is no surprise then that the army under the leadership of the ``Three Musketeers'' _ defence minister, army chief and deputy army chief _ has given its full backing to the government in combating the red shirts.
Every time there is a red rally, the army would propose that the Internal Security Act be applied, with 10,000 troops deployed to keep order. Even during normal times, as many as 150 soldiers are deployed to stand guard at Government House.
Even with the alliance firmly in place, it is believed that Gen Anupong is not putting all his eggs in one basket.
As a contingency measure in case things do not turn out as planned, Gen Piroon Paewpolsong, the army's chief-of-staff, is seen as a possible replacement candidate for the army commander.
Gen Piroon hails from the same Class 10 as Gen Anupong, which means he is also a classmate of Thaksin.
It is believed Gen Piroon is a neutral candidate who can be accepted by all factions, if such acceptance turns out to be needed.
Gen Piroon can be the dark horse that gets the trophy on one condition _ if Puea Thai becomes the government _ even though he is due for retirement in two years' time, i.e. in 2011.
Another advantage of Gen Piroon, who has advanced in his career from the cavalry, is that he is regarded as one of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's proteges. The president of the Privy Council banked on Gen Piroon to make his dream of seeing the set-up of the new 3rd Cavalry Division in Khon Kaen come true. Gen Prem had reportedly made a remark to leading soldiers that, ``If I see the 3rd Cavalry Division before I die, I will die peacefully.''
There is only one loose end to the plan, and that is: Gen Prayuth and Gen Piroon might develop a sense of rivalry to the point where they might be unable to cooperate well.
At the moment, however, Gen Prayuth remains the No.1 candidate. How long will his star shine? Will the government-army alliance stay in place long enough to see him through? Only one thing is certain: the fates of PM Abhisit and Gen Prayuth are intertwined.
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