The Preah Vihear contention has now entering its twelve months old, still it shows no sign of abating down and has all the ingredients to trigger a full scale armed conflict. From the Cambodia’s perspective, Thailand border diplomacy leaves many Khmers perplexed and wondered whether Thai elite really understands or cares about the far reaching consequences of such diplomacy.
In this two-parts essay, the author will present the options on the Cambodia side, and argue from the military and political standpoints that Thai current border diplomacy is not only inconsistent with her long term interests but also has damaging repercussions far beyond what she could have anticipated.
While the arguments are strongly worded and appear to be confrontational, they nonetheless reflect the true situation in any armed conflict. The author does not wish to see both countries embark on the path of war, but fears that the absence of genuine statesmanship and real commitment to solve the current border conflict are dangerously bringing both countries closer to war each day.
By comparison, Cambodia is considerably smaller than Thailand in terms of national GDP, population as well as military size and budget. While Cambodian armed forces are mainly equipped with AK-47 assault riffles, B-40 RPG and a few T-54 Russian tanks, Thai armed forces, on the other hand, are equipped with long range artilleries, powerful battle tanks, state-of-the art fighter jets F-16, fleet of modern destroyers, and advanced Command and Control Communications systems.
Numerically and logistically speaking, several Western military observers are in the opinion that Cambodian armed forces are no match to the Thai counterpart. So is likely the opinion of Thai Supreme Command who may wrongly assess that its present numerical and logistical advantages will deter the Cambodian counterpart. Such assessment is not only flaw, but has also created a false sense of overconfidence and a dangerous bullying attitude which complicates and intensifies the current conflict.
Thai generals may think that in any eventual full scale military conflict, air strikes and artillery shelling will cripple Cambodian resistance, and that battlefields will be restricted and contained to either the border areas or inside Cambodia territory.
Interestingly, this is not how the Cambodia side sees it. Cambodia is well aware of, but not deterred by her current numerical and logistical lacking. Instead, she’s counting on the raising nationalist sentiment of her people as well as the will and the battlefield experiences of her soldiers, most of whom are veteran guerrillas who had fought in the jungles, got used to the hardship and could survive with bare minimum.
Should a war breaks out, the nationalist sentiment will run feverously high, and Cambodia will have no difficulty to mobilize and commit up to one million men to defend the country. These men are not salary soldiers, but warriors who will fight with resolute determination.
Make no mistake. The so-called jungle or guerrilla warfare and tactics from the cold war era will not be the only option available to the Cambodia side, and it would be unwise to assume that battlefields will be restricted to only the border areas.
The world has changed, so has the ugly face of war. An increasing number of today armed conflicts around the globe have taken the new form of urban warfare, where die-hard or rogue elements within military structures do not hesitate to operate outside their chains-of-commands to carry out despicable acts and terrorize civilian population. Tourist industry, public amenities, transport and infrastructure – to name a few – are vulnerable and have all become easy targets.
With the low cost and high availability of information technology gadgets, today urban warfare is highly sophisticated and extremely difficult to prevent. Internet email accounts and blogs, which are seamlessly accessible, have become an effective tool for suicide bombers to plot and coordinate their deadly attacks on civilian targets; various cell phones have been used to remotely trigger explosives in market places; and the list goes on.
The possibility of such attacks or threat, no matter how remote or unlikely it is, can cause a sense of general panic among the local population, scare off the tourists and severely disrupts the economy. Cambodia side really trusts that Thai generals consider such possibility as a serious warning sign on their radar screens. Neither long range artilleries nor F-16 fighter jets can guarantee public security or protection against urban warfare tactics.
Cambodia side does not wish to embark on a destructive path, but can not accept to be held captive or hostage by its neighbour internal politics. The International Community has ruled and unequivocally recognized Cambodia as the sole and legitimate owner of the Preah Vihear temple. As a proud member of the World community, Thailand is obliged to respect that ruling, and it is in her best interest to move on. The military bullying attitude and provocative behaviour on this issue serve no purpose, but damage her own image, to say the least, in the international arena.
[To follow… Preah Vihear – Part 2: The Indochina Factor]
Khmer Academy
July 3rd, 2009
3 comments:
Khmer is now a round the world they should know that and we all love our country and we will fight our traditional enemy the murderous Thai to the end of the world
i have five kids now. if thailand going to war because of this small land that belong to us,i am willing to die for srok khmer. i want to die for srok khmer and be happy for it. thai know better that this is our land and temples. it is time to show thailand that we are tired of them looking down at us.we khmer consider thai as a young brother or sister. this are beyond disrespecting us. they try to step on our heads for too long. I AM TIRED OF THIS ARROGANT FOOL.
These analyses make a good read. It has some valid points, but I don't buy the rationale of resorting to guerrilla warfare or urban warfare to fight the Thai troops. Guerrilla warfare can only be employed against poorly equipped and poorly-trained army. With sophisticated army like the Thai army, equipped with hundreds of jet fighters, helicopters, tanks, heavy artilleries, aircraft carrier, guerrilla warfare has no chance if the Thai military employs a heavy-handed assault.
Also, where can we fight a guerrilla warfare? The Thai troops will push Cambodian troops out of the border jungle into the interior of Cambodia. Urban warfare (fighting in the city)? Cambodian cities are too small to hide any resistance fighters there. Urban terrorism? No, Cambodians are not very violent people and not good at suicide or making bombs like the Muslim people.
Now, the solutions to our military weakness is to spend large military budget to upgrade our army, acquire more modern weapons such as tanks, artilleries, helicopters, jet fighters. When Cambodia has the military equilibrium with Thailand, then the Thai will stop bullying Cambodia over our borders.
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