Author: Chheang Vannarith, University of Leeds
The recent state visit by Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to Cambodia represented part of the Thai military government’s uphill diplomatic battle to build and strengthen its legitimacy abroad. This visit occurred amid mounting diplomatic pressures from Europe and the US, calling for a rapid return to democracy.
Legitimacy, security, and economic development are Prayuth’s three core interests. Building confidence and good relations with Thailand’s immediate neighbours is his top priority while also simultaneously approaching China to defuse diplomatic pressures from the West. Since the bloodless coup in May, which ousted the democratically elected Yingluck administration, the military regime claimed its necessary role to restore peace and order in Thailand, which has been hit by lengthy crises.
Prayuth was elected as prime minister by the appointed members of the National Assembly in August and was later endorsed by the King. In October, he stepped down from his position as army chief to take up a civilian-style leadership role. He promised to carry out deep structural reform and restore national unity and development.
Some, however, are sceptical whether the military regime will honestly keep its word, suspecting that the military will hold on to power for a few more years. In that case, political convulsions may reoccur. A popular uprising is not a remote possibility, particularly in north-eastern Thailand where the majority of the farmers are still loyal to the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.
To stabilise and secure the country, Prayuth has taken a strategic and proactive foreign policy approach with its neighbours, especially Cambodia and Myanmar. Cambodia sits in a strategic location, highly important to the current Thai regime but, moreover, the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has shown friendship to Thaksin Shinawatra. Prayuth is concerned that Cambodia may become a safe haven or even a base for the anti-coup movement. More than 200,000 Cambodian migrants were either deported from Thailand or fled fearing violence in June. For his part, Hun Sen has frequently claimed that Cambodia would not allow Thaksin’s forces to reside in the country. Prayuth started to engage Hun Sen since his first day in power. In early July, he sent his top diplomat, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, to Phnom Penh to build mutual confidence, initiate cooperation, and manage the migrant crisis.
Prayuth also warmly welcomed the Cambodian defence minister, Tea Banh, again trying to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. In mid-October, Prayuth and Hun Sen informally met for the first time on the sidelines of the 10th Asia–Europe Summit in Italy, two weeks ahead of the state visit to Cambodia.
However, on these occasions, both Cambodian and Thai leaders did not touch on the most sensitive issues: sovereignty over the Preah Vihear temple, and contentious overlapping maritime claims. By and large, they picked the low hanging fruit, avoiding any discussion of delicate issues. Thailand’s approach to bilateral relations remains vulnerable to domestic political changes and nationalism.
Myanmar is also important to Prayuth’s diplomatic efforts to strengthen legitimacy abroad. In early October, Prayuth made his first foreign visit to Myanmar to strengthen border security, promote bilateral trade and address migration issues: around two and a half million migrant workers both legally and illegally work in Thailand. The development of economic zones, building infrastructure connections, and cultural cooperation were also discussed. Finally, in China, Prayuth finds its most important strategic and economic partner, crucial to countering the soft sanctions imposed by the US and Europe. In early June, a delegation of the Thai military visited China to strengthen military cooperation. And in October, Prayuth met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, also on the sidelines of the Asia–Europe Summit, to reassert his commitment to strengthen economic ties and infrastructure development, and promote cultural exchanges between the two countries.
Under the current regime, amid a crisis of legitimacy at home and abroad, Thailand is gradually moving away from its traditional ally, the US, to build closer strategic partnerships with China and its neighbours. In return, this creates an opportunity for China and its neighbours to deepen its strategic ties with Thailand and the Mekong countries.
Chheang Vannarith is Lecturer in Asia Pacific Studies, University of Leeds.
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