Anyone who cares to know who Prime Minister Hun Sen and his perennial
political rival Sam Rainsy are looking to for support as both claim
victory in last month’s national election need only consider the
ambassadors each met with last week.
Two days after the poll, with unofficial results showing major gains
for his opposition CNRP, Mr. Rainsy made his first post-election call
on U.S. Ambassador William Todd. Mr. Hun Sen, whose ruling CPP was quick
to claim another—if much diminished—victory, had his first two
diplomatic meetings two days later with the ambassadors of Germany and
China.
With no quick fix to the contested election in sight, and each side
digging in on their respective claims of victory, both men are looking
to shore up support from their main foreign allies, said Carl Thayer, a
Southeast Asia expert at the Australian National Defense Force Academy
in Canberra.
“First, Hun Sen will seek continued reassurances of Chinese support.
Second, Hun Sen is sending a signal to his domestic and foreign critics
that they can pressure him all they want over the conduct of the
election but the CPP regime has China’s backing,” Mr. Thayer said.
Mr. Hun Sen used his meeting with Chinese Ambassador Bu Jianguo to
insist-—contrary to claims by the opposition and some legal experts—that
his party could still form the next government even if the CNRP tries
to boycott the first meeting of the National Assembly.
And in Kandal province on Friday, in only his second public speech
since the poll, the prime minister said other countries, namely China,
would be happy to step in if Washington pulls its aid, as some U.S.
lawmakers are proposing if it is finally decided that the elections were
not free and fair.
“If you are brave enough, cut it [aid money] off,” Mr. Hun Sen said
to the U.S. lawmakers who had called for the funding freeze, just before
reminding them of the military trucks Beijing donated in 2010 when
Washington canceled a similar shipment over human rights concerns.
China, which does not have general elections, was also one of the
first countries to congratulate Mr. Hun Sen after the CPP declared
victory. Bangladesh, Burma, Hungary and Vietnam have followed suit.
Mr. Rainsy, who has spent much of the past few years lobbying U.S. and European lawmakers, is looking West.
“Sam Rainsy will continue to seek support from the U.S. and European
nations for his allegations that the elections were not free and fair.
His visit with the U.S. ambassador is a signal that Sam Rainsy, too, has
powerful external friends,” Mr. Thayer said. “The U.S., through [former
Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton, has already warned Cambodia of
leaning too much on China.”
Only a day after the elections, in Washington, the U.S. State
Department expressed concern about reports of election-day
irregularities and called for a “full and transparent” investigation.
Though a State Department spokeswoman said the U.S. was not
expressly backing the opposition’s own call for an investigation, the
government appeared to take it that way. The very next day, the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs issued a statement advising all diplomatic missions
to stay out of Cambodia’ internal affairs and specifically not to
support the opposition.
Since the election, Mr. Rainsy has been saying all the right things
about China in the Chinese press, supporting its One China policy and
its claims to islands in the South China Sea. On the campaign trail,
however, the opposition leader picked up a good deal of popular support
by spurning the sort of controversial mining and agri-business projects
Beijing is heavily invested in here.
To protect those investments, and avoid the instability a political
handover could bring, Mr. Thayer said Beijing will keep backing the CPP.
“Privately, China will be concerned at the swing to the opposition
because it is likely to be critical of China. China will also be
concerned over any instability that could affect Chinese residents or
Chinese investments in China,” he said. “Privately, China will offer
whatever support is necessary to assist its clients in the CPP.”
What China wants out of these elections more than anything else is
the status quo, said Ian Story, a senior fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. For the time being, he said, that
still means backing Mr. Hun Sen.
“Since 1997, bilateral relations have strengthened considerably and
China’s political, economic and strategic interests have been advanced
under [Prime Minister] Hun Sen. Beijing will therefore have been
satisfied with the outcome of the election as it provides continuity,”
Mr. Story said.
“There is growing competition for influence between Washington and
Beijing in Southeast Asia,” he added. “So long as Hun Sen remains in
power, China will have the inside track in Cambodia.”
Mr. Hun Sen and Mr. Rainsy are both still claiming victory. The
National Election Committee, though widely perceived as favoring the
CPP, is not expected to release official results until the middle of the
month.
With everything still to fight for, political analyst Lao Mong Hay
agreed that there was nothing haphazard about the two countries Mr. Hun
Sen and Mr. Rainsy chose to call on first. “They are looking for the
respective support of these two powers,” he said.
While an ego-bruised Mr. Hun Sen turns to Beijing for reassurance, he
said, Mr. Rainsy can thank Washington for keeping up the pressure
that helped secure his return from abroad—where he was avoiding
convictions widely believed to have been politically motivated—just
ahead of the elections.
But Mr. Mong Hay said the post-election showdown will ultimately turn
on domestic factors most, especially how and when Mr. Rainsy chooses to
mobilize the millions of Cambodians who voted for the opposition and
gave the CPP its toughest political fight in 20 years.
Whatever roles China and the U.S. may play, he said, “The biggest
factor is his [Mr. Rainsy’s] support across the country—that the
majority of people are against the ruling party.”
ដោយ Zsombor Peter - August 5, 2013
អ្នកដែលចង់ដឹងថា តើលោកនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន និងលោក សម រង្ស៊ី ដែលជាគូប្រជែងនយោបាយរបស់
ពីរថ្ងៃបន្ទាប់ពីរការបោះឆ្
លោក ខាល ថេយ័រ អ្នកជំនាញប្រចាំអាស៊ីអាគ្នេ
លោក ថេយ័រ បានមានប្រសាសន៍ថា“ ទី១ ហ៊ុន សែន នឹងបន្តស្វែងរកការគាំទ្រពី
លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បានប្រើប្រាស់ជំនួបរបស់លោ
ចំណែកឯនៅក្នុងខេត្តកណ្ដាល
លោក ហ៊ុន សែន មានប្រសាសន៍សំដៅដល់សមាជិ
ប្រទេសចិនដែលមិនមានការបោះ
លោក សម រង្ស៊ី ដែលបានចំណាយពេលពីរបីឆ្នាំ
លោក ថេយ័រ បានមានប្រសាសន៍ថា “ សម រង្ស៊ី នឹងបន្តស្វែងរកការគាំទ្រ
តែមួយថ្ងៃប៉ុណ្ណោះបន្ទាប់
ទោះបីជាអ្នកនាំពាក្យក្រសួង
ចាប់តាំងពីការបោះឆ្នោតនេះ
ដើម្បីការពារវិនិយោគទុនទាំ
លោក អៀន ស្តរី (Ian Story) មន្ត្រីជាន់ខ្ពស់នៅវិទ្យាស្
លោក ស្តរី បានមានប្រសាសន៍ថា “ចាប់តាំងពីឆ្នាំ១៩៩៧មក ទំនាក់ទំនងទ្វេភាគីបានប្រសើ
លោកបានប្រសាសន៍បន្ថែមថា “ មានការប្រកួតប្រជែងឥទ្ធិពល
លោក ហ៊ុន សែន និងលោក សម រង្ស៊ី នៅតែអះអាងពីជ័យជម្នះរៀង
ដោយនៅមានបញ្ហាជាច្រើនដែ
ប៉ុន្តែលោក ឡៅ ម៉ុងហៃ មានប្រសាសន៍ថា ជម្លោះក្រោយការបោះឆ្នោតអា
ប្រែសម្រួលដោយ មូល គឹមហឿន
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