International Pressure Can Prevent Cambodian Political Stalemate, Analysts Say

Sok Khemara

VOA August 08, 2013 

President of National Rescue Party Sam Rainsy, center, gives a speech during a public forum on the topic of the election of July 28, at their party's office in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, July 31, 2013.

As a political deadlock over last month’s Cambodian election results becomes more likely, experts in the United States say international pressure may be the best way to hasten the formation of a new Cambodian government.

The opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) says it will not concede the elections, which officials from the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) say they won.

The stalemate could result in an opposition boycott of the first National Assembly meeting two months from now, making the formation of a new government legally impossible.

Opposition leader Sam Rainsy has called for public demonstrations if an independent investigation is not held into allegations of irregularities, which he says cost the opposition the election.

It remains unclear how much the international community can do, however, or how much the ruling party and Prime Minister Hun Sen will allow.

John Ciorciari, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan says the CPP is not likely to give up control of the process.

“It is very likely that a U.N. inquiry would uncover some evidence of fraud in Cambodia's recent elections. That would raise pressure on the CPP to re-run the election or hand over more seats. For that reason, the CPP will probably not agree to any inquiry in which it is not represented," said Ciorciari.

Both sides can find a compromise that won’t end in “a head-on collision in the streets,” he said. “The CPP could offer appointments, pledges of specific policy reforms, or take other steps short of agreeing to a full U.N. inquiry. The CNRP's best strategy is to maintain pressure on the government through peaceful protests and calls for an inquiry while negotiating privately with CPP leaders for concessions. Any CNRP protests have to remain entirely peaceful to avoid justifying a crackdown.”

The CPP may have difficulty bringing opposition lawmakers over to its side with incentives, he said. And “a prolonged period without a government is not in the country’s interest.” However, the CPP does not see the U.N. or Western nations as “honest brokers, which makes it hard for them to play mediating roles,” he said.

Shihoko Goto, a researcher at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a policy research organization in Washington, said Cambodians still have faith in the democratic process, so calls for a recount should be taken seriously.

“The international community, including the United States, could pressure the Hun Sen government to do so," said Goto.

A continued stand-off could lead to unrest, she said, and that could in turn lead to a crackdown. “While the king has called for post-election harmony, there is real fear of the government taking action against protesters. This should be avoided at all costs. Yet there is unfortunately little appetite from the international community to take preemptive measures at this stage, as they expect any unresolved issues over election results to be handled domestically.”

Brad Adams, Asia director for Human Rights Watch, told VOA Khmer the CPP is “trying to run a one-party state.” And, he says, donors should make sure that their aid does not go to a government formed from a “stolen election.”

“It really depends on politics. Is the ruling party strong enough to keep foreigners or independent people and institutions out of the review process? I think if Cambodian donors insist on it, the Cambodian government has no choice but to allow it," said Adams.

Morana Song, a U.N. spokeswoman, said Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is following the situation in the country closely.

“The United Nations encourages the competent authorities to adjudicate complaints fairly and transparently, with the ultimate aim of ensuring the accurate determination of, and respect for, the will of the Cambodian people,” Song said in an email.

This report was originally prepared by the VOA Khmer Service