Cambodia's Ruling Party Under Siege

August 1, 2013 | 

Strat For Global Intelligence

Summary

(TANG CHHIN SOTHY/AFP/Getty Images)

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen at a construction site in Phnom Penh on July 31

The party that has ruled Cambodia since 1985 is facing the biggest challenge to its authority in years. Prime Minister Hun Sen said July 31 that his Cambodia People's Party is ready to talk with the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party after the opposition and international observers accused it of vote rigging and fraud in the July 28 parliamentary elections, which the ruling party claimed it had won. The opposition has pledged to have its supporters launch street demonstrations and has called for a U.N. investigation. The looming political instability could undermine Cambodia's prospects as one of East Asia's most promising emerging economies.

Analysis

The offer to begin talks came a day after the opposition party declared itself the victor in the elections, saying it had won 63 of the parliament's 123 seats. For its part, the Cambodia People's Party said that it had won 68 seats to the opposition's 55. Either way, the results represent an erosion of the ruling party's former majority and a massive gain for the Cambodia National Rescue Party, which had won only 26 seats in the 2008 elections. If the opposition won as many seats as it has claimed, it would have the largest bloc of votes in the parliament, though still not the two-thirds necessary to form the next government.

The opposition's rejection of the election results and refusal to participate in the parliament with the ruling party has raised the prospects of political instability in the country. The offer to engage the opposition in talks itself is an admission by Hun Sen -- who has ruled the country in a authoritarian manner for decades -- that his party's political dominance has already weakened, and could be a sign that he would rather entertain concessions to the opposition than form a government without the opposition at the expense of losing legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

The current situation is reminiscent of the political and social instability surrounding general elections in July 1998, when the Cambodia National Rescue Party's predecessor, along with other opposition parties, demanded a recount of election results that declared victory -- albeit slim -- for Hun Sen's party. Large-scale street demonstrations were organized, and the opposition requested intervention by external forces. To quell the political unrest, Hun Sen was forced to neutralize the opposition through a combination of political concessions, a security crackdown and threats against opposition members.

Renewed Interest

However, in 1998 Asia was a different place. The region was still struggling with economic crises and underdevelopment, China was only beginning to look toward projecting power externally and Indonesia was in the midst of political chaos after Suharto's fall just two months before Cambodia's elections. This was compounded by the United States' relative lack of involvement in the Asia-Pacific region after the end of the Cold War. In this context, Cambodia was deemed relatively unimportant, with comparatively little external pressure on Hun Sen's authoritarian regime. 

Nonetheless, in recent years Cambodia has re-emerged as a key regional player and is seeing renewed external interest in the country. The Cambodian opposition is looking to capture some of this growing external attention and direct it to the country's domestic political scene. It hopes to challenge the ruling party's decades-long dominance amid the allegations of election fraud and bolster its own political prominence.

As part of this new wave of attention, the West -- particularly the United States -- has attempted to court Cambodia's leaders with additional financial aid and support, which the country needs to diversify investment and develop its economy. This effort, however, has not been entirely successful, since China has well established political and economic ties to Cambodia, and Cambodia has depended on China to deter the influence of its occasionally hostile neighbors -- Vietnam and Thailand.

Leading up to the elections, Washington pressured the ruling party by threatening to cut off assistance if elections were not deemed free and fair and later called for an investigation into the fraud allegations. Still, despite the opposition's strong showing in the 2013 elections, outside players are not likely to completely forsake their relationships with the ruling party in favor of the opposition.

At the same time, opposition parties have demonstrated an ability to use their more populist socio-economic political platform to win votes from the ruling party, the legitimacy of which rests on political stability and years of strong economic growth in the post-Khmer Rouge era. In particular, the Cambodia National Rescue Party has capitalized on discontent among the public over rising inequality, corruption and land-seizures. The party is attempting to appeal to the youth by promising an increase in the minimum wage and to the elderly with a monthly pension, alongside long-standing promises to tackle corruption. The Cambodia National Rescue Party has also promoted Cambodian nationalism by appealing to the widespread aversion of Vietnam, which occupied the country from the late 1970s until 1993.

The Cambodia People's Party is still widely popular in the countryside. However, the opposition's strong performance in the latest election demonstrated that it is capable of challenging the ruling party's primacy. Even though the country is now being courted as an emerging economy, the potential for political instability could jeopardize its prospects.