Cambodian strongman Hun Sen in test run for 2013 vote

Sunday June 3, 2012 

PHNOM PENH (Reuters): Cambodians vote on Sunday for local councils and Prime Minister Hun Sen's party seems likely to win this test run for the next general election, but a self-exiled opposition leader says the 2013 vote will be a sham unless he is allowed home to take part.

The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) of Hun Sen, who has been in power for 27 years, took over 70 percent of commune council seats in 2007 and won 58 percent of the vote in the following year's general election, taking a majority in parliament.

Analysts say he has brought political stability to the country since the early 1990s after the turmoil of the Khmer Rouge era and that has attracted international manufacturers, especially in the garment sector, the source of most exports.

But his authoritarian style and a succession of land grabs, often for the benefit of foreign firms, have caused pockets of trouble and, faced with growing protests, the government suspended new land transfers to companies in May.

Hun Sen (centre), shows his finger to journalists at a polling station in Kandal province, Cambodia, 03 June 2012. - EPA

Sam Rainsy, leader of the eponymous main opposition party, told Reuters in Geneva that farmers may rebel against Hun Sen over land grabs and forced evictions, although independent analysts doubt that will loosen the premier's grip on power.

"The Hun Sen government is doing the same thing as in the 1960s when land grabbing led to a very bloody revolution," he said. "The farmers will revolt. Now they are being patient as they are waiting for the next election. If they can't express their will, they will resort to violence."

He accused the National Election Committee (NEC) of bias in favour of Hun Sen, saying it had disenfranchised supporters of his Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), which he called "the spearhead of democratic change", and boosted the CPP vote with "ghost names."

The 2008 election campaign was less violent than those that went before, although six people died, including four CPP and two SRP activists. European Union observers noted a series of irregularities but said these did not affect the outcome.

The SRP came second with 22 percent of the vote in 2008.

THE RIGHT TO RUN

Rainsy fled the country after being sentenced to 12 years in prison for forging documents and other action he took to contest a new border agreed by Cambodia and Vietnam. He said he would not be eligible to run in the July 2013 election unless he is in the country for the six months before that.

"In order for the next election to be credible, one - the electoral commission must be reformed, and two - I must be allowed to go back to Cambodia and be able to run. So the charges must be dropped and my right to run must be restored."

"If the government manages to secure another victory by cheating, the government will lose legitimacy. Then the population will be in a better position to revolt and I think we would see in Cambodia what we have seen in the Arab Spring."

Analysts are highly sceptical of that scenario, most expecting the CPP to retain power next year with some ease, even if the SRP and a new arrival, the Human Rights Party, pick up votes in areas that have seen forced evictions.

"One of the largest difficulties for a non-ruling party in Cambodia is having the same access to media, which then in turn influences the amount of information that voters receive," said Laura Thornton, country director of the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute, which provides training for parties.

"The lion's share, particularly television, is dominated by news related to the ruling party," she said, adding the communal elections were being used by the various parties to test their campaign machines and to prepare a platform for the 2013 vote.

Hang Puthea, director of the Neutral and Impartial Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia, a monitoring group, forecast the CPP would win by far the most seats.

"The CPP is able to show that all the achievements of the nation are down to the CPP. The CPP has more resources than other parties and in rural areas people only know the CPP."