Thaksin in Cambodia: New Years' partying

(Picture credit: AFP)

Apr 17th 2012,
The Economist
SIEM REAP, Cambodia

FOR nearly six years, Chadri Sittiaree has been an ardent supporter of Thailand’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who remains a fugitive at home. Around Thailand, where rallies by Mr Thaksin’s “red shirt” admirers take place weekly, Mr Chadri has become a fixture—selling mugs adorned with the faces of Mr Thaksin and his younger sister, the current prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, to offset his own travel costs.

“When the coup started, I felt I was robbed of my rights, because I selected him and they threw him out,” Mr Chadri explained.

In this he is far from alone. An estimated 50,000 of Mr Thaksin’s fans alighted in Siem Reap, in the north of Cambodia, during the weekend’s Thai New Year holiday to catch a glimpse of the one-time premier. Mr Thaksin has been living in a kind of self-imposed exile for years now, to avoid a raft of corruption charges.

His countrymen who made the pilgrimage to neighbouring Cambodia to see him were not disappointed. At a speech he gave to a rally on Saturday, Mr Thaksin thanked his followers for their support. Then he promised he would soon return home.

The announcement was greeted by euphoria among his boisterous fans—some of whom had spent days camped out at a fairgrounds on the outskirts of Siem Reap in hopes of meeting Mr Thaksin. In a tent city set up adjacent to the stage, Thais wearing red T-shirts that bore slogans like “Truth Today” spoke of national reconciliation—and also about the possibility of Mr Thaksin’s imminent return. For the first time in the half-dozen years since Mr Thaksin’s ouster, that appears to be within reach. Many observers in Bangkok believe a newly instated national-reconciliation committee has been paving the way for just such a move. Officials from Pheu Thai spent their weekend in Cambodia hinting that their de facto leader would be home within a year.

It was just such a show of hope that thousands of Thais trickled into Cambodia over the weekend. They came in trucks, private cars and long-distance taxis, but most shot into town on a series of massive buses that were adorned with photos of Mr Thaksin side-by-side with Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen.

As much as the rally was a testament to Mr Thaksin’s popularity, it was perhaps even more a reflection of the unusual friendship that has burgeoned between him and Mr Hun Sen over the past few years. At a cost that the Cambodian government has refused to disclose, thousands of its security officers were deployed along with hundreds of support staff including street sweepers, electrical engineers, health workers and many more besides. While much of Cambodia had been shut down over the weekend to celebrate the Khmer New Year, which took place Friday, the authorities in Siem Reap went into overdrive.

Plenty of Thai baht doubtless flowed into Siem Reap during the three-day rally, but it’s unlikely that the Thaksinites’ expenditures counterbalanced the costs to Cambodia’s exchequer. Thousands of Pheu Thai’s poorer members arrived with tents, foodstuffs and stoves of their own and likely never ventured from the fairgrounds. Thai vendors conducted brisk business there, selling everything from T-shirts to instant noodles in exchange for their national currency. To the consternation of some, the red shirts were given free admission to Angkor Wat, the stupendous archaeological site which puts Siem Reap on the world’s map. Government officials estimated the lost revenue to be something near $1m. The support to Mr Thaksin’s supporters was a demonstration of its “friendship”, the Cambodian side explained.

A demonstration of political manoeuvring is more like it. For years Cambodia has counted on a return of Pheu Thai and Mr Thaksin to strengthen its political and economic partnership with Thailand, a relationship with a tense history. In 2009, Mr Hun Sen nearly incited a diplomatic crisis by appointing Mr Thaksin as an economic adviser, enraging the then-government of Thailand, which was run by his political enemies. The title was eventually dropped, but the two men have grown ever closer in the intervening years.

Analysts on the Cambodian side have called Mr Hun Sen’s wrangling a gamble. But with a powerful Pheu Thai majority now set in place, it appears likely to pay off. At the border, things are the calmest they’ve been in years, and Thai trade continues to play a major role in Cambodia’s economy. Always one to pander to the poorest of his own citizens, Mr Hun Sen can now count a good number of Thais among his fan base. In addition to the classic red-shirt cheers of “We Love Thaksin” and “Thaksin, Come Home,” a new one could be heard ringing out over the weekend. “Thaksin, Hun Sen! Thaksin, Hun Sen!”