Thaksin, flanked by supporters, talks to reporters in front of Angkor Wat temple.by Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Today Online
Apr 18, 2012
He may still be on the run from the law but former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has once again managed to raise the political temperature in Thailand.
In the latest move to prove his enduring popularity, Thaksin chose to celebrate Thailand's most important holiday in neighbouring Cambodia during the weekend, telling fervent supporters who had crossed the border to meet him that he planned to return home soon - on his own terms.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen rolled out the red carpet in Siem Reap to welcome Thaksin, and even organised a meeting between Thaksin and his Red-Shirt supporters, underlining yet again the close personal ties between the two men.
Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup after being accused of abusing his power and showing disrespect for the Thai monarchy, led a song-filled rally to mark Songkran, the Thai New Year.
Between appearances on stage, he worked the crowd in a manner recalling his powerful political campaigns of the past.
Thaksin, 62, has been living in different locations overseas since jumping bail in 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption. He maintains that the corruption case was politically motivated.
A DEAL IN THE WORKS?
To the Red Shirts, the event in Siem Reap, just a few hours' drive from north-eastern Thailand, has raised a crucial question: Will he be celebrating the next Songkran at home?
Thaksin said at the rally that his return would be "in the next three to four months", "not so long", and when "everything would be stable". But some doubt if that homecoming will be possible so soon.
There have been some talks between Thaksin's representatives and members of the old establishment. In February last year, there were reports that a deal had been struck between the rival camps, with Thaksin promising to leave the military and the palace alone and his enemies agreeing to allow him to return without facing any charges. The Yingluck government seems to lend credence to such reports through some of its actions.
It is apparent that Prime Minister Yingluck is interested in making peace with the traditional elite, while going ahead with an amnesty plan that will allow Thaksin to escape his jail sentence.
More importantly, the Yingluck government has made clear that it will not support calls to amend Article 112 of the Thai criminal code, which makes it an offence for anyone to insult or defame the monarchy.
For the country's traditional elite, Article 112 is the key to the survival of the royal institution and thus, to their position of power.
THE HUN SEN LINK
Meanwhile, through his excellent hospitality, Mr Hun Sen has lent his support to Thaksin and the Red Shirt movement.
Indeed, this is the first time in modern history that a Cambodian leader has openly taken sides in Thailand's internal conflict.
In the past, it was Thailand which had supported the Cambodian opposition to destabilise the regime in Phnom Penh.
Mr Hun Sen had a taste of it when Thailand backed a Khmer Rouge-dominated coalition against him in the 1980s. Several decades on, Cambodia is no longer a passive player in the relationship with its neighbour.
Despite living in self-imposed exile overseas, Thaksin has remained a key player in Thai politics. His party, through different reincarnations, has won every single general election since 2001, with the last one bringing Ms Yingluck into power last year.
His entrenched political power, through various proxies, has in some ways eroded the influence of the palace and the military, which critics claim comprise mainly anti-democratic elements.
The traditional elite simply could not compete with Thaksin in the game of electoral politics. And Thaksin's activities at the weekend are a sign that his continued electoral potency will put more pressure on the traditional elite.
CHANGES TO CONSTITUTION
Ms Yingluck's government is taking steps to get Thaksin off the judicial hook. It has proposed changes to the military-backed, post-coup constitution along with legislation that would grant an amnesty to all those involved in the political turmoil of the past six years.
With Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai-led government holding a majority in Parliament, the possibility of it passing a law that could vindicate Thaksin of his past wrongdoings cannot be ruled out. And, if Thaksin does indeed return to Thailand, it could only mean one thing: The success of his enemies in preserving the integrity of the military and the monarchy in exchange for his freedom.
But the question then will be: What will be the future direction of Thai democracy amid this power rearrangement among the elites?
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is associate professor at the Centre for South-east Asian Studies, Kyoto University, in Japan.
In the latest move to prove his enduring popularity, Thaksin chose to celebrate Thailand's most important holiday in neighbouring Cambodia during the weekend, telling fervent supporters who had crossed the border to meet him that he planned to return home soon - on his own terms.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen rolled out the red carpet in Siem Reap to welcome Thaksin, and even organised a meeting between Thaksin and his Red-Shirt supporters, underlining yet again the close personal ties between the two men.
Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup after being accused of abusing his power and showing disrespect for the Thai monarchy, led a song-filled rally to mark Songkran, the Thai New Year.
Between appearances on stage, he worked the crowd in a manner recalling his powerful political campaigns of the past.
Thaksin, 62, has been living in different locations overseas since jumping bail in 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption. He maintains that the corruption case was politically motivated.
A DEAL IN THE WORKS?
To the Red Shirts, the event in Siem Reap, just a few hours' drive from north-eastern Thailand, has raised a crucial question: Will he be celebrating the next Songkran at home?
Thaksin said at the rally that his return would be "in the next three to four months", "not so long", and when "everything would be stable". But some doubt if that homecoming will be possible so soon.
There have been some talks between Thaksin's representatives and members of the old establishment. In February last year, there were reports that a deal had been struck between the rival camps, with Thaksin promising to leave the military and the palace alone and his enemies agreeing to allow him to return without facing any charges. The Yingluck government seems to lend credence to such reports through some of its actions.
It is apparent that Prime Minister Yingluck is interested in making peace with the traditional elite, while going ahead with an amnesty plan that will allow Thaksin to escape his jail sentence.
More importantly, the Yingluck government has made clear that it will not support calls to amend Article 112 of the Thai criminal code, which makes it an offence for anyone to insult or defame the monarchy.
For the country's traditional elite, Article 112 is the key to the survival of the royal institution and thus, to their position of power.
THE HUN SEN LINK
Meanwhile, through his excellent hospitality, Mr Hun Sen has lent his support to Thaksin and the Red Shirt movement.
Indeed, this is the first time in modern history that a Cambodian leader has openly taken sides in Thailand's internal conflict.
In the past, it was Thailand which had supported the Cambodian opposition to destabilise the regime in Phnom Penh.
Mr Hun Sen had a taste of it when Thailand backed a Khmer Rouge-dominated coalition against him in the 1980s. Several decades on, Cambodia is no longer a passive player in the relationship with its neighbour.
Despite living in self-imposed exile overseas, Thaksin has remained a key player in Thai politics. His party, through different reincarnations, has won every single general election since 2001, with the last one bringing Ms Yingluck into power last year.
His entrenched political power, through various proxies, has in some ways eroded the influence of the palace and the military, which critics claim comprise mainly anti-democratic elements.
The traditional elite simply could not compete with Thaksin in the game of electoral politics. And Thaksin's activities at the weekend are a sign that his continued electoral potency will put more pressure on the traditional elite.
CHANGES TO CONSTITUTION
Ms Yingluck's government is taking steps to get Thaksin off the judicial hook. It has proposed changes to the military-backed, post-coup constitution along with legislation that would grant an amnesty to all those involved in the political turmoil of the past six years.
With Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai-led government holding a majority in Parliament, the possibility of it passing a law that could vindicate Thaksin of his past wrongdoings cannot be ruled out. And, if Thaksin does indeed return to Thailand, it could only mean one thing: The success of his enemies in preserving the integrity of the military and the monarchy in exchange for his freedom.
But the question then will be: What will be the future direction of Thai democracy amid this power rearrangement among the elites?
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is associate professor at the Centre for South-east Asian Studies, Kyoto University, in Japan.
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