A Change of Guard

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Thursday 2 February 2012

The senate election: A win-win for everyone

Op-Ed by Khmerization
30th January, 2012

The 2012 senatorial election has produced an impressive result for both sides of the Cambodian political spectrum, with the opposition and the ruling party contented with the outcome while at the same time claiming victory in their own right.

Officials from both the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the CPP-affiliated media as well as foreign media have claimed that the ruling CPP had won a landslide victory. However, the result has shown that the victory is insignificant and is just symbolic.

The ruling CPP came into the election with 45 senatorial seats and, in this election, it claimed to have won 46 seats. If one applies the Cambodian election calculation methodology to allocate seats, the CPP had only scored 44.3 seats- a loss of one seat.

The opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), on the other hand, ventured into this election with fears and trepidation because it had ventured into a terra incognita situation as a result of political intimidation, vote-buying and an expected cheating. However, it has come out with result better than expected, winning 11 seats out of the 57 seats up for grabs. Considering that it went into the election with only 2 senate seats, this is a significant victory for the SRP. However, the SRP had lost some individual votes, through vote-buying and political intimidation, in most of the electoral constituencies, but the votes it had obtained have translated into an impressive result- a win of 11-13 seats, a gain of 9 to 11 seats. The ruling CPP, on the other hand, while gaining some votes in nearly all of the electoral constituencies, have not made much inroad in term of winning seats.

The absence of its leader notwithstanding and considered as an underdog and due to political intimidation, vote-buying and threats from the ruling CPP, the SRP has come out in one of its sweetest victories ever. This victory- if one can call this electoral gain a victory at all- will firm its electoral chances and boost its political standing for its upcoming 2013 national election campaign.

The ruling CPP went into the election with 45 seats and despite employing its campaign of political intimidation, vote-buying, threats and the power of money, it has come out with a disappointing result - with only a dismal victory- short of everyone’s expectations- gaining only one seat or losing one to two seats, depending on which report one believed.

With the formula that has been used to apply in this election, the result is as expected because only the elected officials, members of parliament and elected councilors, can vote. With elected members poised to tow the political line, the result is a foregone conclusion. But the outcome could have been tilted toward the ruling Cambodian People’s Party because of its money power, vote-buying, political intimidation and threats. And despite spending a large fortune on bribing the SRP voters and buying votes, the CPP had not been able to kill the SRP politically as it intended to do so.

This senatorial election, if it has taught us anything at all, has sent us one message and that is never underestimated the underdog because, in this case, the underdog has turned the table.

Credits should go to all parties concerned for competing fair and square, especially credits are particularly due to the National Election Committee for organizing a relative peaceful election and for showing its political maturity and some sort of political independence from the ruling CPP, evident in its imposition of the penalty on a CPP councillor for alleged vote-buying and for its impartiality in counting the votes, avoiding vote-rigging and fraudulent counting that had happened in previous elections.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

To All,

For the general national election in 2013,
there must be creditable western observers.

Anonymous said...

If the SRP can get the loyalty of its councilors now, it can hope to get the loyalty of voters in 2013. What I'm concerned about is the cheating at the counting. The CPP-controled NEC can play game any time as they had done in the past. But if the election is fair, the result would be good for the SRP and acceptable by all.

Anonymous said...

Election is never fair. Dont hope to much, SRP will loose again. US and UN will once again support the Ruling government. Hun Sen begging for more donor, straight to their pockets and families.

Anonymous said...

To 3:58pm,

Yes, elections can be fair.That is why we
need impartial observers.
If US, UN, and other civilised nations have
proofs that CPP cheats, intermidates or
harms voters, these countries will not
support CPP government.
The danger here is this, we assume
at the outset that SRP is not going to win.
Why bother trying ?
Last senate election, SRP won only one seat,
now eleven.
The progress that counts.

A patient Khmer

Anonymous said...

For the election to be fair, the present NEC must be dissolved and the new and independent NEC, appointed by the king, must be formed. Then come impartial observers and then the NEC must have enough power to punish any individuals or parties who use money to buy votes, use intimidation and threats. If the election is fair then the SRP has a good chance, maybe not winning but increasing its parliamentary seats.

Anonymous said...

Almost 20 years since the first break-up of Funcinpec in 1995, CPP is still thriving and can still add one more seat to the already dominant number of senators in the senate.

Anonymous said...

Election can never be fair. Why. Because look at the current administration. Which administration isnt under the influenced or control under Hun Sen? the legislators? the judiciary? What can the US and UN observers do? Hasnt there been many reports of election frauds and elections cheats over the years? NEC, keeps turning their blind eyes, just like CPP turning a blind eyes of the current land concession, and illegal activities.

Why SRP are trying, they are trying because they have no choice. Will they ever win? No, because US and UN even International communities are aware of the illegal activities, yet, it is not their jurisdiction. On the other hand, US and UN ignore the pleas and supports Hun Sen regime.

When confronted with petitions after loosing their homes and land, the Embassies staffs simply took their petition and told them to try elsewhere.

Dare you to prove me wrong.

Anonymous said...

The only test to know how popular the CPP or Sam Rainsy is, is to have an election organized by the UN, like in 1993. But I don't think that is possible. But I want to point out that if no cheating, no intimidation or vote-buying, the CPP can't win with this big margin. Maybe only with a small margin.

Anonymous said...

A nation-wide TV network that is neutral and independent would help; one owned and controlled by the Opposition might help even more.

I doubt the CPP will ever honour the electorate's verdict, however. If the verdict is to its favour, it will use it as a mandate to steam-roll the Opposition; if it is not, it will use violence to steam-roll the Opposition all the same, just as it had done post-1993.

Even if an independent, nationalist government were to be formed tomorrow, chances are Hanoi will find ways to destabilise it, just as it had done in the past.

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Kouprey