A Change of Guard

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Saturday, 18 June 2011

Chinese naval maneuvers seen as warning to Vietnam [It's Vietnam's Karma for encroaching on Cambodian borders]

Chinese warship firing a missile during a live firing naval drill in the South China Sea.

The exercises in the South China Sea escalate tensions over a potentially resource-rich area also claimed by several neighboring countries.

June 18, 2011
Los Angeles Times
By Barbara Demick,
Reporting in Beijing

The Chinese navy conducted three days of exercises — including live fire drills — in the disputed waters of the South China Sea this week, escalating tensions over a potentially resource-rich area also claimed by some neighboring countries in Southeast Asia.

The display of naval might hundreds of miles from China's southernmost border was widely seen as a warning to Vietnam, which this week conducted its own live fire drills near the Spratly Islands. Several countries claim sovereignty over the string of uninhabited volcanic rocks, which are ringed by jagged reefs and crusted with bird droppings but rendered attractive by virtue of the surrounding waters that are fertile fishing grounds and may cover significant reserves of oil and natural gas.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all claim jurisdiction over some of the territory. But China contends its sovereignty dates from ancient national maps that show the islands to be an integral part of its territory.

On Friday, state television showed video of Chinese patrol boats firing repeated rounds at a target on what looked like an uninhabited island, as twin fighter jets streaked in tandem overhead. The report said 14 vessels participated in the maneuvers, staging antisubmarine and beach landing drills aimed at "defending atolls and protecting sea lanes.''


China has pressed its claim to the outcrops in the South China Sea more assertively in the last two years. Chinese civilian vessels have increasingly confronted fishing and oil-exploration ships from other countries operating in those waters.

The latest spike in tension began late last month when Vietnam accused a Chinese fishing boat, escorted by two patrol boats, of deliberately severing a cable of a seismic survey ship owned by PetroVietnam, the national oil and gas company. Relations between the two countries are fraught: They waged a border war in 1979, and have since clashed occasionally at sea over the Spratlys as well as another island chain, the Paracels.

The Vietnamese government is under pressure from its own intensely nationalist media and its citizenry to stand up to China. The sea skirmish in May sparked an anti-Chinese outpouring in Vietnam, and the government has permitted rare public demonstrations to allow a mostly youthful crowd to vent anger.

Social media are also fueling anti-Chinese sentiments, including an online petition to change the name of the South China Sea to the Southeast Asia Sea.

"Vietnam has always been in a bad position to have such a large and powerful neighbor as China, but we are also angry that the Vietnamese government takes such a subservient attitude toward China," said Thuc Vy Huynh, a 27-year-old activist and blogger.

Chinese officials say they are merely protecting their national economic interests.

"We cannot avoid dealing with this issue. The Vietnamese are collecting gas and encroaching on our territory," said Xu Guangyu, a retired Chinese military officer and analyst with the China Arms Control and Disarmament Assn.

China has also dispatched its largest civilian vessel to pass through the region, sending the 3,000-ton, helicopter-equipped Haixun to dock in Singapore. And an unidentified Oceanic Administration official was quoted in China's state news media as saying that the civilian maritime surveillance force would be increased to 15,000 from 9,000 personnel by 2020.

With Vietnam and the Philippines issuing sharp warnings against further Chinese encroachment on their commercial ventures, observers say the potential for violence is there.

"The highly charged situation in which vessels with paramilitary capabilities ignore each other's signals and engage in provocative actions could easily devolve into a shooting incident," said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt of the International Crisis Group's Beijing office. "If bullets fly, we could really see things escalate."

The dispute also has implications for the United States, which is the largest naval power in Southeast Asia and has declared freedom of navigation in the waters to be a U.S. national interest. The Obama administration has called for the competing claims to be resolved through an international diplomatic process involving all countries with a stake in the issue.

China rejects that approach, contending that differences should be resolved with each country individually.

As China adopts a more forceful posture in its international relations, nervous neighbors have become more receptive to U.S. involvement, pushing countries like Vietnam to seek an American counterweight to Chinese power.

But the Vietnamese government is also mindful of the risks of disrupting its growing economic ties with China. It has been careful, so far, to avoid overly provoking Beijing. Its live-fire drill conducted Monday appeared to be an anticlimactic affair, conducted close to land without the firing of anti-ship missiles.

"The cable-cutting incident was like the work of hooligans," said Carl Thayer, a Vietnam scholar teaching at the Australian Defense Force Academy. "But it is not something Vietnam is going to war over."

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

What if Cambodia have medium range missiles (Donated or on loan by Russia for use in emergency only)that can hit any targets of The enemy,Cambodia army will keep secrets without letting the The enemy know.

Here are reason for keeping secret and summary of the missile:
-The missile or the bomb’s computer uses GPS signals to steer itself towards a target’s coordinates, and inertial navigation (velocity-measuring gyroscopes) if for some reason GPS fails (i.e. GPS jamming is fatal).
-The most common type of satellite-guided weapon: JDAM.
Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM).
-The most popular mechanism for delivering satellite-guided bombs, the JDAM is not an actual bomb but instead a tail kit attached to existing “dumb” bombs.
Joint Stand-Off Weapon (JSOW).
-Long-range satellite-guided missile designed to hit targets from a range far beyond that of anti-aircraft weaponry.

POTENTIAL DIFFICULTIES&FAILURE
-GPS Jamming – this is largely accounted for failure of the systems.
-Accuracy – technology limitations.
-Human intelligence errors (ex. Chinese Embassy mistake).
-Weather factor(Both remote-controlled weapons and laser-guided weapons rely on continued visual contact with the target,In cloudy weather, then, the bombs may veer off course, wasting the bomb and potentially hit the unintended targets).
-The originate of the missiles (if the enemy know the original of the missile,The enemy can make plan for defend).

This is not intent to mislead anyone, and not going to challenge all the expert opinions are being on this blog, this is the myth or the imaginary of poor Cambodian that unable to play part to defend the motherland by the invader.(I am might be wrong Cambodian may have nothing the enemy might walk in and capture Cambodia without a sweat).

Note I give my opinion base on my knowledge as the Aerospace&Mechanical engineering.

Anonymous said...

What goes around will come back around. This is Karma at work. For many centuries Dai Viet, Annam, and Vietnam(all in the same)expanded its territory by incroached, invaded, and conquered Champa. After Champ was part of Vietnam, Annam(Vietnam) made a next move into Khmer(Cambodia) territory in early 1700's. In 1949, Vietnam took Khmer Krom(south Vietnam)territory through deceiving the colonial French.

Vietnam is crying about China encroachment into its territory starting at the sea and will eventually work into Vietnam territory coming from the north. Now Vietnam begin to know what it's like to have a bigger thief stealing from a smaller thief.

As far as Cambodia, Hun Sen supports China's policy of claiming the South China Sea. So this should say something about who has more influence over Hun Sen. Obviously China, not necessarily Hanio, Vietnam. What should be very important to Cambodia is the lost of Khmer Krom territory. Cambodia should support Khmer Krom to make them a pain-in- the-ass for Vietnam when the opportunity is right. At the same time, Chams living in Cambodia should be given a dream and motivation to reclaim the lost of their homeland in central Vietnam. This way, Vietnam will be dealing with 3 enemies at one time. This should be very interesting.

Anonymous said...

Make sense 2:43 AM. If Cambodia ever thought of uniting with their lost brothers of Khmer Krom, Cambodia should support them in any way possible. Of course, Hanio has Hun Sen by the balls on this, so at the moment Cambodia can't do much. Laos might also be interest in jumping in the bandwagon to reclaim some of their lost territory from Vietnam. Just like Cambodia, at the moment, Hanoi got Laotian government by the balls too. We shall sit and wait patiencely to see the out come. As you said, when the opportunity is given, Vietnam's enemies must strike. Vietnam could be facing 3-4 enemies at one time. China would be the greatest challenge.

Anonymous said...

China must teach Vietnam a lesion. China has been suffering from Vietnamese's' polemical interests so long. Vietnam brought in French, American and Russia to the regions to make S.E.A unstable. They don't like to make real good friends at neighbors. Because they couldn't do land encroachment. They are the worst people on Earth. Karma will come to them soon.

Plueng ches kol omboll yo youn, Khmer rot puon kla kham chenh.

david said...

Is the world coming to an end? People remember the "put tom neay"; are we getting closer to the destruction stage? The story of Preah Bat Tomuk might become true afterall. Khmer went through the Khmer Rouge which was pridicted long time ago and it came true as exactly it was predicted.

Anonymous said...

China must not back down with Viet-leech! China must send strong messages to Viet-leech with your mighty red dragon'FANG!!!!!

Anonymous said...

20 June 2011 4:32 AM

You have my assurance that the Chinese will NEVER back down. I also believe in the Chinese's military leaders' tenacity.