A Change of Guard

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Saturday 12 February 2011

Egypt's Hosni Mubarak stepped down after people's revolution



Jubilant Egyptians See Hopeful Era After Mubarak

February 11, 2011,
By Ahmed A Namatalla, Mariam Fam and Maram Mazen

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Hosni Mubarak ceded power to the Egyptian military as a popular revolt swept away the leader of the Arab world’s most populous state, throwing into question the future course of a reliable U.S. ally in the Middle East.

Egyptians, who only hours earlier shouted anger that Mubarak was clinging to power, celebrated through the night in Cairo and other cities after an announcement that Mubarak had resigned, bowing to the demands of protesters who had occupied central Cairo for 18 days. In downtown’s Mubarak subway station, revelers crossed out his name, replacing it with “Martyrs’ Station.”

After 30 years of autocratic rule by Mubarak, the only leader young Egyptians have known, the country begins a new day under a military council that promises to lead the country through a democratic transformation.

“The people know the power is in their hands,” said Shehab Bassam, 30, a graphic designer attending a rally outside the presidential palace in the suburb of Heliopolis. He said one of his friends had been shot dead on Jan. 26. “The army’s legitimacy is from the people, therefore we trust that they will help us build a better future.”

Military Council

What happens next was left unclear, including the timing for constitutional reforms and elections. A spokesman for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces said the ruling body will not be a replacement for a legitimate government. The council is headed by Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, who has been defense minister. There has been no immediate mention of a role for Vice President Omar Suleiman, Mubarak’s long-time adviser and head of intelligence.

“The people of Egypt have spoken, their voices have been heard and Egypt will never be the same,” U.S. President Barack Obama said at the White House after a meeting with his national security team. The “moral force of non-violence” helped Egyptians bend the arc of history to achieve their goals, he said.

Stocks rose, reversing an early drop, and oil fell to a 10- week low in New York following the news from Egypt. An exchange- traded fund tracking Egyptian equities rallied 5.1 percent and the cost of credit-default swaps on the nation’s debt fell 16 basis points to 322, according to CMA.

Dancing in the Square

Tens of thousands of protesters who crowded into Cairo’s central Tahrir Square after dark greeted the announcement with a roar of delight before dancing, singing and waving the national flag. Demonstrators in the square -- named with the Arabic word for “liberation” in honor of the 1919 revolution against British occupation -- hugged and handed candy to the army personnel they have gotten to know as the military stood guard the past two weeks. Some soldiers flashed back victory signs. Other stood stiffly at attention.

“We’re thrilled,” said Waleed Rashed, a co-founder of Six of April Youth, a youth activist group that helped organize the first protest on Jan. 25. “There are a lot of things still to be worked out, but we trust the army to supervise the transitional period. We hope things will be better. If they are not, we now know the way.”

The scenes of jubilation were repeated across the country. Outside the presidential palace, drivers honked their car horns while a crowd of thousands chanted: “The people have toppled the regime.”

‘I Now Have a Future’

“I feel like I’ve been reborn,” said Aya Hamdy, a 20- year-old fine-arts student. “I feel like I now have a future to look forward to.”

Just hours earlier, Egyptians had streamed out of mosques following Friday prayers vowing to oust Mubarak, 82, who Feb. 10 defied calls for him to leave.

The handover of power was announced by Suleiman in a statement on state television late yesterday. He said Mubarak had “instructed the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to take over the affairs of the country.” Mubarak left Cairo for the Egyptian Sinai resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh, state television reported before the announcement.

Egypt under Mubarak was a U.S. ally in the Middle East and one the main beneficiaries of American aid. Tantawi, the head of Egypt’s military council, has spoken with his U.S. counterpart, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, at least five times since the protests began.

Switching Sides

“America has switched sides,” said Karim Mezran, professor of international relations at the Johns Hopkins University campus in Bologna, Italy. “Obama has made it clear they won’t stand by dictators.”

Mubarak’s resignation opens a new phase in a crisis that was sparked by the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on Jan. 14 and is rippling through a region that holds more than 50 percent of the world’s oil reserves.

Oil fell after the Egyptian leader stepped down, reducing concern that crude shipments from the Middle East will be disrupted. Crude for March delivery declined $1.15 to $85.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Nov. 30. Futures fell 3.9 percent this week and are up 14 percent from a year ago.

The cost of insuring Egyptian government debt fell 16 basis points to 322 as of 2:27 p.m. in New York, according to CMA prices for credit-default swaps, tumbling from as high as 379 basis points yesterday. The Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF, an exchange-traded fund that holds Egyptian shares, gained 4.1 percent in New York. Egypt’s 5.75 percent dollar bond due 2020 rebounded, cutting the yield by 15 basis points at 6.35 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Next Steps

The next steps rest on the decision of the military council. In a statement yesterday, it said that “the armed forces are committed to shepherding the legitimate demands of the people and strives with firmness and accuracy to ensure their implementation within a definitive timetable until the realization of a peaceful transition that produces the democratic society to which people aspire.”

Daniel Kurtzer, U.S. ambassador to Egypt from 1997 to 2001, said the military council should issue a timeline for adoption of a revised constitution and for free elections. The first thing they need to do is lift the emergency laws -- as the council said it would do -- since “this will send a powerful signal throughout the society” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television yesterday.

New Demands

The army council, at its highest state of alert since the 1973 war with Israel, is likely to face calls for quick actions from the thousands of young protesters who have crammed into Tahrir Square and used Facebook and Twitter to organize themselves. Google Inc. executive Wael Ghonim, a figurehead of the protests, yesterday read out a list of demands that included abolishing all restrictions on forming political parties and giving voting rights to Egyptians abroad.

Mohamed ElBaradei, an opposition leader and former head of the United Nations atomic energy agency, said was willing to assist during the period of transition. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who spoke in a telephone interview with Al-Jazeera, called the resignation a “dream come true” for the people of Egypt.

Ayman Nour, who ran a distant second in the 2005 presidential race, told al-Jazeera he would consider running for president in the future if his Ghad Party approves his candidacy.

Elections may also bolster the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s main opposition group, and other parties shut out of power in the most populous Arab country. The Brotherhood is banned from politics in Egypt, and members have had to run for office as independents in parliamentary elections.

Muslim Brotherhood

Leading Muslim Brotherhood member Essam El-Erian said it was too early to have a stance on the announcement.

“We need to understand what this means and whether or not this is constitutional,” he said in a telephone interview after the announcement.

Mubarak, a former air force general who as president was commander of the largest military in the Arab world, was the nation’s longest-serving ruler in more than 150 years. He controlled a government that was the linchpin of U.S. policy in the Middle East for three decades.

Mubarak kept peace with Israel, with which Egypt had formal peace for only two years when he took office, supported U.S. counterterrorism efforts, backed Iranian sanctions over its nuclear program and helped broker Palestinian-Israeli talks.

Celebrations

At the same time, Mubarak controlled a regime condemned by the U.S. government for its lack of basic freedoms, for its widespread suppression of political opposition and for the torture of Egyptian citizens, which was often carried out with impunity, according to the State Department.

“The demonstrators are obviously overjoyed, but the way he resigned may ultimately make them wish they didn’t get what they wished for,” Nathan J. Brown, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, said in a telephone interview. “They don’t have regime change. They have gotten rid of just one person.”

--With assistance from Zainab Fattah, Vivian Salama and Alaa Shahine in Dubai, Gregory Viscusi in Paris, Abigail Moses in London, Mark Shenk in New York, Margot Habiby in Dallas and David Lerman and Viola Gienger in Washington. Editors: Terry Atlas, Steven Komarow

To contact the reporters on this story: Ahmed A Namatalla in Cairo at anamatalla@bloomberg.net; Maram Mazen in Khartoum at mmazen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Whot ta fuck care about Egypt bullshit or give a shit about it?

Anonymous said...

We care about Thailand invading khmer, fuck the Egypt bullshit..craps!