FTI warns of recession effects on exports
One million industrial jobs here could be lost to the global economic recession over the next several quarters, the Federation of Thai Industries warned yesterday.
"Factories now operate just five days per week instead of six days due to fewer [export] orders, which will likely drop at least 30 per cent year on year," said Thaveekij Jaturajarernkul, chairman of the FTI's labour committee.
"Consequently, 15 to 20 per cent of the workforce is expected to be laid off at the start of 2009," he said.
As their overseas customers cut back, manufacturers should reduce their production shifts and overtime payments to employees, he said.
The garment, electric and electrical appliance, ceramic and furniture industries will be among those most at risk to the global slump, he added.
Industry currently employs about 6 million people.
Dusit Nontanakorn, vice chairman of the Board of Trade, said the economy would be hit hard by the worldwide downturn over the next six to 24 months.
"Tourism has already taken a beating. Next are the export-oriented industries. They will have to adjust business plans drastically to survive the recession.
"Exporters that had tapped the high-end markets may have to shift to the medium segment, while those in the medium segment may have to shift to the lower-end markets," he said.
"However, we will face fierce competition from China and Vietnam at the bottom," he said.
The private sector will have to help itself, as the government is not addressing the problems triggered by the global crisis adequately, he said.
"It's like we have cancer, but the government says it's not that serious so just painkillers are prescribed. We're dealing with the situation improperly," he said.
Pramon Suthivong, chairman of the Board of Trade, said the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce would wrap up a comprehensive study on the global recession's impacts on the economy in the middle of next month, with brainstorming sessions following to help industries cope with the dire consequences predicted.
Thaveekij of the FTI warned that new college graduates would also find the employment market tough next year, as prospects for getting hired would be rather dim.
Thailand churns out 700,000 to 800,000 graduates annually.
However, Somchai Jitsuchon, research director of the Thailand Development Research Institute, was optimistic, saying that if the economy could manage to grow by at least 3 per cent next year, new workers coming onto the market could be absorbed.
Tanit Sorat, chairman of the FTI's committee on transport and logistics, said the economy would likely slow to 3.8 to 4 per cent in 2009.
"Tourism may suffer a big drop in revenues of up to 50 per cent next year, if the domestic political chaos is not ended and if the border conflict with Cambodia continues," he said.
The government should rush its economic stimulus package worth Bt1.2 trillion into action as soon as possible.
"Besides the economic stimulus, the private sector wants to see more stable politics," he said.
New union
Employees of the Nation Multimedia Group yesterday completed setting up their labour union under the name of the Mass Communication Labour Union.
The Labour Ministry approved registration of the union on August 27, with the members of its first committee to be elected within 120 days.
Sadet Bunnag yesterday was chosen as the union's first president.
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