Rural population likely to be key in re-electing Cambodian regime

CAMBODIA: The government is expected to increase its majority in Sunday's poll, writes Fergal Quinn in Prey Veng province.

WITH JUST a few days to go before polling in the national assembly elections, the town of Prey Veng in southeast Cambodia seemed oddly quiet this week.

There were few processions, rallies or colourful party billboards to suggest that this town is capital of a province that is key to deciding the next government.

Eleven out of 123 seats nationally are up for grabs here, and indications by observers this week suggest that the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), the one-time communists who have hung on to power since seizing it in a military coup, could emerge as the big winners in Sunday's vote.

Although Phnom Penh is abuzz with election theatrics and a plethora of opposition parties are out in force, it is provinces like Prey Veng, with its predominantly rural, uneducated population, that will be key to deciding the government. And the signs are that they will provide the springboard for the CPP to add to its 73-seat national assembly majority.

Despite strong campaigning by the opposition and a calmer atmosphere than during previous elections, the CPP is continuing to gain ground, said Prey Veng provincial secretary for independent election monitors Comfrel Kim Sokhom. "The people in the countryside have always just gone and voted for the CPP or the royalists [ Funcinpec]," he said.

Kim Sokhom predicts that the majority of Funcinpec's 26 seats will go to the CPP, with Funcinpec's support collapsing since its popular leader, former prime minister Prince Norodom Ranarridh, was ousted and fled to Malaysia to avoid corruption charges in 2006.

It is an outcome commentators are saying would be disastrous for Cambodia, where the ruling party has been heavily implicated in widespread corruption, land-grabbing and abuses of human rights since coming to power.

According to independent analyst and former president of the Centre for Social Development Chea Vannath, the CPP's firm grip on the countryside is because of its overwhelming advantage in financial and human resources.

"The CPP have learnt the importance of this segment and have worked harder and harder at controlling it," she said.

Grenade attacks on opposition rallies, assassinations and intimidation have all been used in the pursuit of power since the messy handover of power by the UN in 1993. This time the CPP is taking a softer approach. Gift-giving has been the main electoral abuse reported in the lead-up to this year's poll in Prey Veng.

Clothing and money have been brazenly handed out at large rallies, while the national election committee, the official body charged with punishing election law abuses, and the government-dominated broadcast media have turned a blind eye.

According to Chea Vannath, the more blatant misuses of power by the CPP tend to be noticed more by people in urban areas. "In the cities, for example, you can see the corruption every time you access a service, while those in rural areas see it less often," she said.

In places like Prey Veng, it doesn't take much from the CPP to win people over, according to Kim Sokhon. "People are poor here, they are easily impressed," he said.

The CPP can also point to an economy on the up, roads being upgraded, and new buildings springing up all over - signs of progress in this impoverished nation's attempt to put its disastrous past behind it.

Duch Kadum, Prey Veng department chief for the CPP, said that the CPP's target was to win every seat in his province. "People want benefits like schools, hospitals, roads and canals for agriculture," he said. "We have been providing this so they will continue to support us." But he denied all the allegations of gift-giving. "There is no evidence or witnesses to support that claim," he said.

Aside from misuse of state resources, the opposition has had plenty to get its teeth into, with inflation at an all-time high and unemployment levels growing.

Most eyes this year are on the socially left, economically conservative Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), which made impressive strides in the 2003 elections. It won 23 seats on an anti-corruption ticket, and continued that upward trajectory in local elections last year.

According to Yim Khun Khoeun, who is running as one of the party's six candidates in Prey Veng, his party is poised to do well on Sunday. "We hope to win five or six seats in this province," he said, adding that for the party not to increase its share nationwide would be a major disappointment.

"We have focused on tackling inflation, creating jobs and improving the salaries of civil servants, while the CPP still just talk about the same old stuff," he said.

However, Houng Ny (52), a farmer in Baray commune, Kampong Liev district, argued that the CPP would win big at the weekend. "I will vote for them because they saved this country from the Khmer Rouge," he said of a party led by two former Khmer Rouge commanders, prime minister Hun Sen and national assembly president Heng Samrin. "Prey Veng is developing a lot now," he added. "Who knows what would happen if someone else came in?"

Dy Samon, SRP deputy commune chief of Takeo commune in Kampong Lieu, said that although his party was making inroads in rural areas, people were still afraid to speak out in support of them. "The CPP officials keep an eye out," he said.

A fishing net-maker in Prey Veng would not state any preference when asked about the election. "I am afraid to talk about that," he said. "All I want to see is calm over the weekend."

According to Chea Vannath, it was never realistic to expect that the SRP could on its own form the effective opposition that Cambodia needs. "They are making progress, but it would take a big disaster to topple the ruling party now," she said. "The best option is a strong coalition of a number of other smaller parties and factions. Otherwise the opposition will remain that for a long time to come."

Dispute: Thai-Cambodian stand-off

KHAO PRA VIHARN, Thailand - Thais living along the border with Cambodia began evacuation and weapon drills yesterday, fearing a land dispute might escalate into violence after talks failed this week.

In villages near the disputed Preah Vihear temple, where hundreds of Thai and Cambodian troops faced off for a ninth day, workers dug holes for new bomb shelters. They also renovated old bunkers dating back to the 1980s, when stray shells often landed during fighting between Khmer Rouge guerrillas and Cambodian government troops.

At the heart of the dispute is a 4.6sq km area around the temple, which sits on a jungle-clad escarpment that forms a natural boundary and is claimed by both nations. The build-up of troops and heavy artillery on both sides of the border has worried neighbouring countries and the UN, to which Cambodia has appealed for help.

While there have been no major incidents at the temple so far, Thai border villages that are home to some 4,000 people are braced for the worst. Authorities have begun arming volunteers with shotguns and training villagers how to defend against potential invaders.

- (Reuters)

© 2008 The Irish Times