Over the past month, Prime Minister Hun Sen has repeatedly warned of a
return to war if his ruling CPP loses July’s national election.
The message that an opposition victory might result in armed
conflict, a destruction of existing infrastructure or even a return to
the Khmer Rouge, has been repeated at least a dozen times by Mr. Hun Sen
since he first raised the issue in late April.
–News Analysis
The threat has become a central theme in the ruling party’s campaign
platform and has reached millions of voters through radio and television
stations that air the entirety of Mr. Hun Sen’s speeches each time he
takes to the podium.
Analysts agree that the likelihood of a return to civil war is
slim—mainly due to the fact the CPP is all but guaranteed a
comprehensive victory on July 28.
So why is it that Mr. Hun Sen is so keen to harp on the issue? And
how much might it influence the decision of the electorate when they go
to the polls?
John Ciorciari, a Cambodia expert at the Gerald R. Ford School of
Public Policy at the University of Michigan, said that for those
Cambodians who have suffered through the Khmer Rouge and ensuing
factional fighting, the prospect of violence would encourage a vote
for the status quo.
“The warnings remind voters—especially older voters—of the horrors of
conflict and encourage them to stick with the highly imperfect but
relatively stable government they have,” he said in an email.
“Voters may also see the warnings as an implicit threat that the CPP
itself will disrupt the peace if it loses elections rather than risk the
consequences of CNRP [Cambodia National Rescue Party] rule,” he added.
Although Mr. Hun Sen’s rhetoric might be intended to scare voters
away from supporting the CNRP, some in the country may have grown
disengaged with the prime minister’s message that chaos will erupt
without the CPP ruling the country, according to Cambodia Institute for
Media Studies director Moeun Chhean Nariddh.
“His [Mr. Hun Sen’s] messages are meant to be a threat, particularly
to supporters of the opposition. But after four elections, the voters
have…become quite skeptical about what they should listen to and care
about,” he said.
Two decades of work by donors, NGOs and civil society in educating
voters on the democratic process has strengthened the electorate’s
ability to critically engage with political parties and question the
claims and promises coming from their candidates, Mr. Chhean Nariddh
added.
“[T]he CPP, particularly the prime minister, has used the same
messages several times and the people have become pretty bored with
these messages—such as ‘the CPP was the liberator from the Khmer Rouge.’
So I think going to war is not a strong message anymore,” he said,
noting that fear of war is not nearly as widespread today as it was only
a decade ago.
For Koul Panha, the executive director of the Committee for Free and
Fair Elections in Cambodia, the repeated warnings from the prime
minister that anarchy may reign if voters cast their ballot for the
opposition may ultimately discourage people from participating in the
election at all.
“I think the way they [the CPP] campaign does not encourage voters
because people feel that to change the government through elections is a
high risk. The possibility of war if the opposition wins the election
does not encourage people to feel that elections are a means to
stabilize the country and create a better democracy and encourage
freedom,” he said.
Despite views that Mr. Hun Sen’s warnings are more about fear
mongering than reality, Council of Ministers spokesman Phay Siphan said
that the threat of war if the CNRP is elected to power is very real.
“Everyone [in the non-ruling party aligned media] tries their best to
manipulate their bias toward the prime minister’s speeches. He tries to
share with the public that the opposition is trying to separate the
government from its people,” Mr. Siphan said.
Mr. Siphan said that the widespread use of anti-Vietnamese rhetoric
among candidates for the opposition party, and claims that CPP leaders
are puppets of Vietnam, would make it very difficult for the CNRP to
bring about national unity if they win July’s election.
Additionally, the opposition party’s promise to bring border disputes
with Vietnam to The Hague in order to win back lost Cambodian land make
it likely that if the CNRP were voted to power, they could end up in
military conflict with Vietnam, Mr. Siphan said.
“The opposition CNRP, their campaign does not respect national
unity, does not respect national security…so they do not respect
people’s power,” he said.
“In 1993 [when peace accords were signed], we learned we have to walk
away [from conflict], we have to respect each other, we have to be
united. But…the opposition is saying ‘the CPP is brought up and
established by Vietnamese,’ that ‘this government is Vietnamese.’ The
people voted us into power, not Vietnam,” he added.
However, CNRP candidate Son Chhay said that the opposition party has
moved away from anti-Vietnamese language used by the SRP in past
elections, and is instead focusing on their seven-point platform of
higher wages, lower commodities and free education and health care.
“This time we have no plan to use Vietnamese as the way to attract
voters. We have written a policy regarding how to deal with our
neighboring country through peaceful negotiations,” he said.
Whatever the likelihood of violence, Kem Ley, a research consultant
with the Cambodian Center for Human Rights, said this year’s election
would more likely center around people’s views on the CPP’s policies
over the past two mandates.
Mr. Ley said that many of the policies implemented by the CPP in the
past 10 years have had a negative impact on rural poor populations.
“Because the CPP over the last five years has implemented policies and
guidelines that have produced a lot of negative impacts—especially
regarding land reform and judiciary court reform—they [CPP candidates]
hesitate to advocate or inform people about their policy or guidelines
for the next five years,” he said.
A number of policies, which in theory are meant to benefit the poor,
have turned out to disproportionally benefit the wealthy, according to
Mr. Ley. As an example, he said that economic land concessions have
created a limited number of employment opportunities while leading to
numerous land disputes.
“So they try to raise the other things in their political campaign in
order to make worry among the Cambodian people,” who are well aware of
the terrors of war, Mr. Ley said.
Questioned about the prospects of war if the CNRP comes to power and
whether the country’s military was preparing for armed conflict after
the election, Minister of Defense Tea Banh laughed.
“Nothing will happen and [the CNRP] will not win [the election],” he said Wednesday.
(Additional reporting by Khuon Narim)
1 comment:
wrong idea, wrong articles, wrong concept by this media news,
too exggerated news,
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