Phnom Penh Post
By Shane Worrell and Vong Sokheng
Youth volunteers
prepare to depart Phnom Penh to take part in the government’s land
measurement and titling scheme in 2012. Photograph: Heng Chivoan/Phnom
Penh Post
Prime Minister Hun Sen warned thousands of villagers yesterday that his
most popular initiatives, including his far-reaching land-titling
scheme, will simply disappear if he is not re-elected in July’s national
election – amid suggestions his campaigning has unofficially begun.
In
a marked shift from his apparent generosity of last week, which
included returning land to evictees in Preah Sihanouk province and
adding $2 to a monthly garment wage increase, the prime minister used a
ground-breaking ceremony for a bridge to predicted regression should the
CPP fall from power.
“You come to Hun Sen for help with problems
relating to markets, bridges [and] roads,” he said during a speech to
about 10,000 villagers in Kandal province’s Koh Thum district. “But when
July comes, you must help me, just once. I ask for only one vote each.”
The
prime minister’s rhetoric – although contradictory – is nothing out of
the ordinary, according to government spokesman Phay Siphan, who noted
that Hun Sen makes headlines all year round.
Independent analysts
and the opposition, however, see Hun Sen’s latest political twisting
and turning as signs his election campaign has already begun, albeit
unofficially.
“You would call it electioneering – reduce
resentment and anger to get [voter] support,” independent analyst Lao
Mong Hay said, referring to Hun Sen’s gestures of last week. “He has
done this in the past. Politicians like to show the public they care.”
As
well as intervening in the wage issue and overturning a sub-decree that
wrested land in Preah Sihanouk back from tycoon Cheam Phen – sparing 49
families from permanent relocation – Hun Sen also publicly declared
last week he had sacked Yean Sina, an undersecretary of state at the
Ministry of Justice, over his alleged part in the beating of 10
journalists.
Koul Panha, executive director of
election-monitoring NGO Comfrel, did not consider Sina’s sacking a
strategic move to sway voters, but believed Hun Sen’s land and wage
moves were.
“I think with the minimum wage, it’s an election motivator, and also the land [issue],” he said.
“Starting
January, things have been a little more intensified. During this time,
[the government] has focused more on economic issues. Minimum wage is a
core issue too... but not education and health.”
In coming
months, Panha said, corruption will be an issue that will likely shape
campaigning, and Hun Sen can be expected to generate televised messages
aimed at young voters.
“This time, they will target youth,” he
said. “They will look at the first-time voters. But the CPP will focus
on entertaining voters, not on policy. They’ll use singers and
comedians. The opposition will focus on education.”
With regards
to the land issue, Nicolas Agostini, a legal adviser focusing on land
rights at Adhoc, said any steps Hun Sen has taken in the lead-up to
July’s election – dating back to last year’s decision to deploy student
volunteers to fast-track his national land-titling scheme – should not
be seen as a policy shift.
“With land, they did enhance
land-title security through the new scheme in non-disputed areas... but
they are not the people and communities who are most in need. On one
side, you see the prime minister getting benefits from these
[announcements], but the real problems are not addressed.”
The
deployment of youth volunteers had been “outside legal framework”,
Agostini added, and steps need to be taken to tackle problems faced by
indigenous communities seeking communal titles, farmers in disputed
areas and villagers in informal urban settlements.
During his
speech yesterday, Hun Sen said he still believed the CPP has the ability
to retain at least two-thirds of the country’s National Assembly seats.
As it stands, the CPP holds 90 of 123 seats, or 73 per cent.
Hun
Sen’s claim that certain major projects could be in jeopardy if the CPP
loses does hold some weight, with CPP-affiliated tycoons frequently
funding what should be public development works. But political analysts
have suggested the newly formed Cambodian National Rescue Party could
chip away at the CPP’s hold on the National Assembly regardless of such
threats.
Opposition Sam Rainsy Party lawmaker Son Chhay believes
the CPP is already feeling pressure from the CNRP, prompting Hun Sen to
begin electioneering months out from the national ballot.
“During
the 2008 election, he went to Sihanoukville and gave some land back –
five years later, he’s doing the same thing. He gives the land back, he
speaks ill of officials.”
Unlike Panha, Chhay considers the sacking of Sina to be significant in its timing.
“Normally,
these are people outside his circle, like [Sina], who was from
Funcinpec. [Hun Sen] can use it as an example and display it to the
public. It’s not a new thing, but this time it’s more serious than ever
before.”
The reason for this, Chhay believes, is because more
voters are becoming dissatisfied with the CPP and willing to speak up
about it, including through public protest.
“I’m surprised. It’s
quite early. But from my own observations, every time there is an
election coming, there will be some reverse behaviour from [Hun Sen]
towards the abuse of his people,” he said.
But though it may
appear otherwise, Siphan, from the Council of Ministers’ Press and Quick
Reaction Unit, said nothing Hun Sen or the government had done thus far
constituted campaigning.
“The activity of the prime minister
makes the front page every week of every year,” he said. “It doesn’t
mean it is part of an election campaign. Thirty days before the
election, that’s when we’ll start. That’s the law.”
That’s a
sentiment that suited Mong Hay, who said any political matter prior to
the end of June should be discussed – for as long as politicians want –
in the confines of the National Assembly.
“At the end of June,
OK, that’s the election campaign. You can talk to people all you want
then. But until then, leave people in peace. Go to the parliament and
have a forum there,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shane Worrell at
shane.worrell@phnompenhpost.com, Vong Sokheng at
sokheng.vong@phnompenhpost.com
Follow Shane Worrell on twitter at: @shaneworrell
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