A Change of Guard

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Monday 12 November 2012

Unpacking ASEAN's Heavy, Fragile Baggage

Asean leaders will soon arrive in Phnom Penh for their annual summit. The group of 10 midsize and smaller countries has emerged to conduct key dialogues for the wider Asia-Pacific region and this summit takes place amid global economic uncertainties and also regional tensions.

The leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will find their bags packed full of expectations and must carry and unpack their burdens with care. Can positive steps be taken?

Fresh from winning his second term, US President Barack Obama will be present alongside Chinese leaders going through their own and very different transition. The summit will be the first place to guess about the future of the world's most important bilateral relationship.

During the campaign, American voters bemoaned the loss of jobs and candidate Obama wagged a finger at Beijing's practices. It remains to be seen if he will use the Asean Summit as a first, informal opportunity to shift to a more positive note.

The American president will then go to Myanmar, a country until recently closeted and controversial because of human rights. This will further the Obama administration's pivot towards Asia but those who suspect an American containment strategy will be watching closely.


The summit will also evidence Beijing's attitudes. At the Party Congress, outgoing leader Hu Jintao underlined China's ambition to become a maritime power. This comes when territorial claims at sea are hot button issues, not only with Tokyo but also in the South China Sea with some Southeast Asian states.

The latter disputes already marred the Asean Ministerial Meeting in July, which ended without an agreed statement for the first time in its history. That was attributed to sensitivities about how to describe disputed claims. At the upcoming summit, the rival and unresolved claims cannot be wholly ignored. Yet if the discussion is unbalanced, differences can be further inflamed, and for little benefit.

This brings Cambodia into sharp focus as the host. When the July Asean meeting broke down, many put the blame on Beijing's influence. Cambodia and China have denied this in various ways but a second test of intention and ability will come at the summit.

Cambodia must be expected to discharge its responsibility to Asean as a whole. The country, after all, hosts this summit on the group's behalf, and not as a national prerogative.

For China, they have always officially supported Asean's central role, and should not divide and weaken the group.

For its own part, Asean must continue to work on the long to-do list that stems from the agenda to create an Asean community by the end of 2015. This is not only to touch on matters of politics but also to foster economic integration and better social and cultural understanding.

The summit will include the launch of an Asean institute for peace and reconciliation and a human rights declaration. Also expect recommendations to strengthen the group's secretariat, when Thailand's charismatic Surin Pitsuwan closes his term as secretary-general and gives way to Vietnamese deputy foreign minister Le Luong Minh.

These and other aspects of the intra-Asean agenda intertwine with its wider role. Asean's unity and credibility are prerequisites and Asean's community project is a key pillar for the wider region, and vice versa. This sets the context for another initiative expected at the summit.

Talks are expected to begin for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to link Asean to six Asian partners - the big three of Northeast Asia as well as India, Australia and New Zealand. Potentially, RCEP will bring together more than three billion people with combined gross domestic product of over US$17 trillion.

This all-Asian effort is especially significant, as Beijing has felt pointedly excluded from the on-going and American-led negotiations for a Trans Pacific Partnership. Having Asean at the hub of RCEP underlines the group's significance to others in Asia.

It is not however to be assumed that Asean will be strong enough to carry the burden of so many and such diverse interests for its own members and the wider region. Other countries will hopefully show empathy and support for the many different interests that will be packed and brought to Phnom Penh.

Only then can Asean leaders unpack a heavy and sometimes awkward summit agenda and ensure items are delivered, and not broken on the way.

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and teaches international law at the Faculty of Law, National University of Singapore. He is the author of "Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide from America".

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