Asean leaders will soon arrive in Phnom Penh for
their annual summit. The group of 10 midsize and smaller countries has
emerged to conduct key dialogues for the wider Asia-Pacific region and
this summit takes place amid global economic uncertainties and also
regional tensions.
The leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will find
their bags packed full of expectations and must carry and unpack their
burdens with care. Can positive steps be taken?
Fresh from winning his second term, US President Barack Obama will be
present alongside Chinese leaders going through their own and very
different transition. The summit will be the first place to guess about
the future of the world's most important bilateral relationship.
During the campaign, American voters bemoaned the loss of jobs and
candidate Obama wagged a finger at Beijing's practices. It remains to be
seen if he will use the Asean Summit as a first, informal opportunity
to shift to a more positive note.
The American president will then go to Myanmar, a country until
recently closeted and controversial because of human rights. This will
further the Obama administration's pivot towards Asia but those who
suspect an American containment strategy will be watching closely.
The summit will also evidence Beijing's attitudes. At the Party
Congress, outgoing leader Hu Jintao underlined China's ambition to
become a maritime power. This comes when territorial claims at sea are
hot button issues, not only with Tokyo but also in the South China Sea
with some Southeast Asian states.
The latter disputes already marred the Asean Ministerial Meeting in
July, which ended without an agreed statement for the first time in its
history. That was attributed to sensitivities about how to describe
disputed claims. At the upcoming summit, the rival and unresolved claims
cannot be wholly ignored. Yet if the discussion is unbalanced,
differences can be further inflamed, and for little benefit.
This brings Cambodia into sharp focus as the host. When the July Asean
meeting broke down, many put the blame on Beijing's influence. Cambodia
and China have denied this in various ways but a second test of
intention and ability will come at the summit.
Cambodia must be expected to discharge its responsibility to Asean as a
whole. The country, after all, hosts this summit on the group's behalf,
and not as a national prerogative.
For China, they have always officially supported Asean's central role, and should not divide and weaken the group.
For its own part, Asean must continue to work on the long to-do list
that stems from the agenda to create an Asean community by the end of
2015. This is not only to touch on matters of politics but also to
foster economic integration and better social and cultural
understanding.
The summit will include the launch of an Asean institute for peace and
reconciliation and a human rights declaration. Also expect
recommendations to strengthen the group's secretariat, when Thailand's
charismatic Surin Pitsuwan closes his term as secretary-general and
gives way to Vietnamese deputy foreign minister Le Luong Minh.
These and other aspects of the intra-Asean agenda intertwine with its
wider role. Asean's unity and credibility are prerequisites and Asean's
community project is a key pillar for the wider region, and vice versa.
This sets the context for another initiative expected at the summit.
Talks are expected to begin for a Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) to link Asean to six Asian partners - the big three
of Northeast Asia as well as India, Australia and New Zealand.
Potentially, RCEP will bring together more than three billion people
with combined gross domestic product of over US$17 trillion.
This all-Asian effort is especially significant, as Beijing has felt
pointedly excluded from the on-going and American-led negotiations for a
Trans Pacific Partnership. Having Asean at the hub of RCEP underlines
the group's significance to others in Asia.
It is not however to be assumed that Asean will be strong enough to
carry the burden of so many and such diverse interests for its own
members and the wider region. Other countries will hopefully show
empathy and support for the many different interests that will be packed
and brought to Phnom Penh.
Only then can Asean leaders unpack a heavy and sometimes awkward summit
agenda and ensure items are delivered, and not broken on the way.
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International
Affairs and teaches international law at the Faculty of Law, National
University of Singapore. He is the author of "Asia Alone: The Dangerous
Post-Crisis Divide from America".
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