Asia Times Online
MANILA - The recently concluded
Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN)
Summit in many ways represented a critical
juncture for not only enhancing regional security
amid the ongoing maritime disputes in the South
China Sea but also the future relevance of the
regional grouping.
Since 2010, ASEAN has
come under tremendous pressure to rein in growing
territorial tensions by conflicting parties in the
South China Sea, especially China, Vietnam, and
the Philippines. Operating on the principles of
consensus and consultation, the regional body has
lacked the necessary coherence, mandate, and
institutional teeth to enforce its principles of
multilateralism and non-use of force
regarding issues related to territorial maritime
disputes.
To be sure, ASEAN has achieved
some progress in dealing with the ongoing
territorial conflicts. Recognizing the gravity of
the intensifying maritime disputes, the ASEAN
summits in Vietnam (2010) and Indonesia (2011)
attained perceptible successes on (i) recognizing
the deleterious impact of ongoing disputes on
regional security and (ii) the necessity to
develop appropriate multilateral mechanisms to
contain China's territorial assertiveness,
regulate the behavior of all claimant states along
the principles of international law, and
peacefully resolve the disputes.
However,
this year's assumption of ASEAN's chairmanship by
Cambodia has arguably undercut earlier
institutional and multilateral gains. During the
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) in July, Cambodia
blocked the inclusion of the ongoing disputes in
the final communique, provoking uproar among
regional states such as the Philippines and
Vietnam. The two latter ASEAN members desperately
hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough for the
development of a legally binding regional code of
conduct to complement the only symbolic 2002
ASEAN-China Declaration on Conduct of Parties in
the South China Sea.
As a result, ASEAN
failed for the first time in the grouping's
history to arrive at a consensus to issue a
communique, calling the very relevance and
internal coherence of the organization into
question.
Months of rising diplomatic
tensions followed between the Philippines and
Cambodia, with other ASEAN members such as
Indonesia - the region's informal leader -
desperately trying to rescue the organization from
internal disintegration. While Cambodia was
accused of doing China's bidding, the Philippines
and Vietnam were criticized for playing an overly
aggressive card towards China over the territorial
disputes.
As allies of the United States,
Vietnam and the Philippines were also accused of
pushing ASEAN towards confrontation with China
(the region's biggest trading partner), while
attempting to re-align ASEAN with an essentially
US-led regional order.
Just months after
the AMM, China, which prefers a predominantly
bilateral approach to resolving disputes with its
weaker individual neighbors, informally thanked
Cambodia for its stand by providing more than
US$500 million in soft loans and grants. The
Philippines and Vietnam, meanwhile, deepened their
military relations with the US and stepped up
their diplomatic pressure on China and Cambodia.
This is why some analysts believed the
recently concluded 2012 ASEAN Summit represented a
make-or-break moment for the region.
Regional fires
Today, the South
China Sea increasingly resembles a maritime
battlefield, hosting a growing number of military
garrisons, naval fortifications, and adjacent
military exercises by contesting parties. In this
sense, the militarization of the South China Sea
disputes is arguably the biggest challenge to
regional security, threatening freedom of
navigation in one of the world's most important
maritime trade arteries.
ASEAN, as an
engine of integration in Southeast Asia and
beyond, could potentially play a decisive role by
containing tensions between China and regional
claimant states, and advancing legal measures to
regulate the behavior of conflicting parties.
Though these territorial tensions are nothing new,
with some dating back to the early decades of the
20th century, a number of factors in the post-Cold
War era have exacerbated the situation,
including:
1. The strategic vacuum resulting
from the US's withdrawal from its major military
bases in the Philippines in 1992;
2. The
dramatic rise of China as a global power in the
last decade, feeding its political ambitions as
well as naval capabilities;
3. The discovery of
sizeable amounts of hydrocarbon reserves in the
South China Sea amid rapid industrialization
across the region;
4. The emergence of popular
nationalism as a bedrock of the Chinese national
psyche at a time communism has lost its
ideological resonance in an increasingly
market-oriented environment;
5. America's
"pivot" to the Asia-Pacific region as Washington
attempts to capitalize on the region's expanding
consumer markets and contain/constrain China's
regional ascendancy;
6. Political demagoguery
over territorial issues by different governments
in East Asia, especially during sensitive
electoral cycles;
7. Regional allies testing
America's military commitment by taking an
increasingly tough stance against China's
perceived rising maritime threat.
Meanwhile, there has been a perceptible
fracture within ASEAN itself with China's and the
US's regional allies taking divergent positions
over the organization's responsibility and
approach to resolving ongoing disputes.
As
the US "pivots" to the Asia-Pacific region, a new
geopolitical layer of heightened Sino-American
competition for hegemony has entered the picture,
further complicating efforts at disentangling
legal maritime issues from broader geopolitical
dynamics.
Dashed hopes
Prior to
this month's ASEAN summit, there was a sense of
cautious optimism. Recognizing the futility of a
confrontational approach, the Philippines
vigorously sought some form of rapprochement with
both Cambodia and China, while the leadership
transition in Beijing also represented an opening
for a new foreign policy direction, especially on
territorial disputes in adjacent waters.
US President Barack Obama's call for an
"easing of tensions" over the disputes, and US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's earlier
identification of regional maritime conflicts as a
"critical issue" in need of immediate and peaceful
resolution added urgency and weight to Obama's
bilateral discussions with Cambodian Prime
Minister Hun Sen ahead of the ASEAN Summit. During
its bilateral meeting with the US, Cambodia was
also hoping for greater aid, better strategic ties
and debt relief.
There was thus some hope
among observers and certain ASEAN states that the
summit would not be a repeat of the earlier AMM
fiasco. According to this reasoning, Cambodia
would choose to prioritize its global reputation
and relevant ties with the US and other ASEAN
states over particularistic bilateral ties with
China.
Cambodia was set to simultaneously
host not only the much-anticipated gathering of
Southeast Asian head of states, but also the
pan-Pacific ASEAN+3 and East Asia Summits,
bringing together all leading Pacific powers
including the US, China, Japan, and India.
"The EAS in particular will provide
Cambodia with the opportunity to restore some of
its credibility after the public embarrassment of
the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) in July,"
argued Gregory Poling and Alexandra Sander of the
Washington-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) ahead of the summit.
"... If the EAS goes demonstrably better than the
AMM did, Cambodia's image will have a chance to
recover and some of the ASEAN skeptics will be
quieted."
However, Hun Sen again blocked
the inclusion of the maritime disputes in the
formal summit agenda, claiming that there was a
"consensus" among member states to exclude
maritime conflicts. His actions prompted a swift
rebuke by Philippine President Benigno Aquino, who
launched a formal protest against the motion,
arguing there was no such consensus and that the
issue was too integral to regional security to be
excluded from this year's discussions.
"Among the principles that the ASEAN
community has pledged to abide by is that of
centrality…Prevailing tensions in the area stand
to impact regional peace and stability," Aquino
stated in his formal intervention during the
ASEAN+3 Summit. "We reiterate our call on all
parties concerned to avoid the threat or use of
force, and to adhere to universally recognized
principles of international law in settling
disputes... because respect for the rule of law
remains the great equalizer in the relations among
nations [especially between China and the
Philippines]."
Aquino's intervention was
notably backed by certain claimant and
non-claimant states in attendance, including
Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia,
and Japan. The Philippine delegation couldn't hide
its frustration, with Aquino - through multiple
interventions - seeking the diplomatic support of
(potential or actual) sympathetic states such as
the US, Japan, India, and Australia.
Most
importantly, Aquino urged greater commitment by
the US to the resolution of the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea. "Each one of our
nations has a stake in the stability of Southeast
Asia. The United States understands this and, for
this reason, has chosen to work with us to ensure
the peace and continuous advancement of our
region," Aquino stated during the summit. "The
ASEAN route is not the only route for us."
Richard Javad Heydarian is a
foreign affairs analyst focusing on Iran and
international security. He is the author of the
upcoming book The Economics of the Arab
Spring: How Globalization Failed the Arab World,
Zed Books, 2013. He can be reached at
jrheydarian@gmail.com
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