Contributed by D. Chandler:
guardianlv.com
Physical War between the U.S. and China couldn’t be any closer as
Diplomats square off against one another in a way that is reminiscent of
a game called “Chicken.” In other words who’s going to blink first?
With stakes as high as they have arguably ever been, America would be
remiss if it didn’t take the recent Chinese’s implied sovereignty in the
South China Sea seriously enough to carefully think through their
options.
Specifically, Beijing is presently embroiled in a dangerous dispute
with their Asian Pacific neighbors over the South China Sea. In recent
hours China’s rhetoric directed at a recent State Department Press
Release has tensions dangerously high. The Asia-Pacific website, ft.com,
reporting just hours ago that “China and the US stepped up their war of
words over territorial deputes in the South China Sea… with the Chinese
foreign ministry calling in senior US diplomat to protest [recent]
remarks by the US state department.
Reuter’s reported that Beijing determined that statements made by the
U.S. in the press were disappointing. The news agency specifically said
that the State Department finds “that China’s establishing of a
military garrison for the area runs ‘counter to collaborative diplomatic
efforts to resolve differences and risk further escalating tensions in
the region.’”
Reuter’s reports that China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang
Kunshung “summoned the U.S. Embassy’s Deputy Chief of Mission, Robert
Wang” to inform him that the State Department’s Press Release
“Disregarded the facts, confused right with wrong, sent a seriously
wrong signal and did not help with efforts by relevant parties to
maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea or the Asia
Pacific…. China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute
opposition, urges the U.S. side to immediately mend the error of its
ways, earnestly respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity
and do more to genuinely benefit stability and prosperity in the Asia
Pacific.
Clearly, China’s rhetoric is quite aggressive and perhaps only an
incident or two away from being able to retract. What makes their
acrimonious behavior more alarming is can be seen as you peruse through a
history of two decades in which Beijing has pursued a consistent policy
in the South China Sea composed of two main elements: gradually
strengthening the country’s territorial and jurisdictional claims while
at the same time endeavoring to assure Southeast Asian countries of its
peaceful intentions. Recent moves by China to bolster its maritime
claims have brought the first element into sharp relief, while
reassurances of benign intent have, however, been in short supply.
Indeed, far from assuaging Southeast Asian concerns regarding its
assertive behavior, China has fuelled them by brazenly exploiting
divisions within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to
further its own national interests. This was evident when
Commentaries in China’s state-run media analyzing the South China Sea
issue have become markedly less conciliatory. Opinion pieces highlight
several new themes in China’s official line. One theme is that China’s
territory, sovereignty as well as its maritime rights and interests
increasingly are being challenged by Southeast Asian nations and Japan
in the South and East China Seas. China’s response, it is argued, should
be to uphold its claims more vigorously, increase its military presence
in contested waters, and, if necessary, be prepared to implement
coercive measures against other countries. As one commentary notes
“Cooperation must be in good faith, competition must be strong, and
confrontation must be resolute” (Caixin, July 13).
Another theme is that, while China has shown restraint, countries
such as the Philippines and Vietnam have been pursuing provocative and
illegal actions in a bid to “plunder” maritime resources such as
hydrocarbons and fisheries which China regards as its own (China Daily, July 30).
A third theme is that Manila and Hanoi continue to encourage U.S.
“meddling” in the South China Sea and that the United States uses the
dispute as a pretext to “pivot” its military forces toward Asia (Global Times,
July 11). To reverse these negative trends, Chinese commentators have
urged the government to adopt more resolute measures toward disputed
territories and maritime boundaries. Nationalist sentiment, they argue,
demands no less.
Recent measures undertaken by the Chinese authorities do indeed
suggest a more hard-line position. Ominously, some of the initiatives
have included a strong military element, presumably as a warning to the
other claimants that China is ready to play hardball.
Perhaps the most noteworthy attempt by China to bolster its
jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea was the raising of the
administrative status of Sansha from county to prefecture level in June.
Sansha originally was established in 2007 as an administrative
mechanism to “govern” the Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank and the
Spratly Islands. Sansha’s elevation was an immediate response to a law
passed on June 21 by Vietnam’s national assembly, which reiterated
Hanoi’s sovereignty claims to the Paracels and Spratlys. Both Vietnam
and China protested the other’s move as a violation of their sovereignty
(Bloomberg, June 21). Less than a month later, Sansha’s municipal
authorities elected a mayor and three deputy mayors and China’s Central
Military Commission authorized the establishment of a garrison for
“managing the city’s national defense mobilization, military reserves
and carrying out military operations (Xinhua, July 20).
Earlier, in late June, China’s Defense Ministry announced it had
begun “combat ready” patrols in the Spratly Islands to “protect national
sovereignty and [China’s] security development interests” (Reuters,
June 28). Embarrassingly for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy,
however, on July 13, one of its frigates ran aground on Half Moon Shoal,
70 miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan and within the
Philippines 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The frigate
was refloated within 24 hours, suggesting that other PLA Navy vessels
were nearby when the incident occurred. These developments provide
further evidence of the growing militarization of the dispute.
China also has moved to undercut the claims and commercial activities
of the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea in other ways.
In June, the state-run China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC) invited foreign energy companies to bid for exploration rights
in nine blocks in the South China Sea. The blocks lie completely within
Vietnam’s EEZ and overlap with those offered for development to foreign
energy corporations by state-owned Petro Vietnam. Accordingly, Hanoi
vigorously protested CNOOC’s tender (Bloomberg, June 27). More
importantly the blocks are located at the edge of China’s nine-dash line
map and seem to support the argument that Beijing interprets the dashes
as representing the outermost limits of its “historic rights” in the
South China Sea. Under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS), however, coastal states are not entitled to “historic
rights” on the high seas. It is therefore unlikely that any of the major
energy giants will bid for CNOOC’s blocks—although smaller companies
may do so if only to curry favor with Beijing with a view to landing
more lucrative contracts down the road. If, however, exploration does
move forward in any of the nine blocks, a clash between Vietnamese and
Chinese coast guard vessels will become a very real possibility.
On the issue of ownership of Scarborough Shoal, scene of a tense
standoff between Chinese and Philippines fishery protection vessels in
May-June, China position remains uncompromising. At the annual ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia in July, Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi restated China’s sovereignty claims to the shoal,
rejected the notion that it was disputed and accused Manila of “making
trouble” (Xinhua, July 13). According to the Philippine foreign
ministry, Chinese trawlers―protected by Chinese paramilitary
vessels—continue to fish in waters close to Scarborough Shoal in
contravention of a bilateral accord whereby both sides agreed to
withdraw their vessels [1].
Following the ARF, China kept up the pressure on the Philippines. In
mid-July, it dispatched a flotilla of 30 fishing trawlers to the
Spratlys escorted by the 3,000-ton fisheries administration vessel
Yuzheng 310 (Xinhua, July 15). The trawlers collected coral and fished
near Philippine-controlled Pag-asa Island and Chinese-controlled
Mischief and Subi Reefs (Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 27). The Philippine authorities monitored the situation but took no action.
In the past, after China has undertaken assertive actions in the
South China Sea it has tried to calm Southeast Asia’s jangled nerves. At
the series of ASEAN-led meetings in Phnom Penh in mid-July, however,
Chinese officials offered virtually no reassurances to their Southeast
Asian counterparts. Worse still, China seems to have utilized its
influence with Cambodia to scupper attempts by ASEAN to address the
problem, causing a breakdown in ASEAN unity.
In the final stages of the annual meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers
(known as the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting or AMM), the Philippines and
Vietnam wanted the final communiqué to reflect their serious concerns
regarding the Scarborough Shoal incident and the CNOOC tender. They were
supported by Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand who felt that
ASEAN should speak with one voice. Cambodia—which holds the rotating
chairmanship of ASEAN and has close political and economic ties with
China— objected because, in the words of Foreign Minister Hor Namhong,
“ASEAN cannot be used as a tribunal for bilateral disputes” (Straits Times,
July 22). Attempts by Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa to
reach a compromise on the wording were unsuccessful and for the first
time in its 45-year history the AMM did not issue a final communiqué.
The fallout from the AMM was immediate and ugly. Natalegawa labelled
ASEAN’s failure to reach agreement “irresponsible” and that the
organization’s centrality in the building of the regional security
architecture had been put at risk (Straits Times, July 16). Singapore’s Foreign Minister, K. Shanmugam described the fiasco as a “sever dent” in ASEAN’s credibility (Straits Times,
July 14). Cambodia and the Philippines blamed the failure on each
other. Cambodia was pilloried by the regional press for its lack of
leadership and for putting its bilateral relationship with China before
the overall interests of ASEAN. One analyst alleged Cambodian officials
had consulted with their Chinese counterparts during the final stages
of talks to reach an agreement on the communiqué [2]. China’s Global Times characterized
the outcome of the AMM as a victory for China, which does not think
ASEAN is an appropriate venue to discuss the dispute, and a defeat for
the Philippines and Vietnam (Global Times, July 16).
A few days after the AMM, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono dispatched his foreign minister to five Southeast Asian
capitals in an effort to restore ASEAN unity. Natalegawa’s shuttle
diplomacy resulted in an ASEAN foreign minister’s statement of July 20
on “ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea” [3]. The six
points, however, broke no new ground and merely reaffirmed ASEAN’s
bottom line consensus on the South China Sea. In response to the joint
statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said it would work with ASEAN to
implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea (DoC) (Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 21).
One of the six points calls for the early conclusion of a code of
conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea, but the Phnom Penh debacle has
made that target highly doubtful.
Although China agreed to discuss a CoC with ASEAN in November 2011,
Beijing always has been lukewarm about such an agreement, preferring
instead to focus on implementing the DoC. Undeterred, earlier this year
ASEAN began drawing up guiding principles for a code and in June agreed
on a set of “proposed elements.” While much of the document is standard
boiler plate, there are two aspects worthy of attention.
The first is that ASEAN calls for a “comprehensive and durable”
settlement of the dispute, a phrase that seems to repudiate Deng
Xiaoping’s proposal that the parties should shelve their sovereignty
claims and jointly develop maritime resources. Clearly, the four ASEAN
claimants have rejected Deng’s formula as it would be tantamount to
recognizing China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea
atolls.
The second interesting aspect concerns mechanisms for resolving
disputes arising from violations or interpretations of the proposed
code. The document suggests that disputing parties turn to the 1976
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) or dispute resolution mechanisms
in UNCLOS. Neither, however, would be of much utility. While the TAC
does provide for a dispute resolution mechanism in the form of an ASEAN
High Council, this clause has never been invoked due to the highly
politicized nature of the High Council and the fact that it cannot issue
binding rulings. Moreover, although China acceded to the TAC in 2003,
Beijing almost certainly would oppose discussion of the South China Sea
at the High Council because it would be outnumbered 10 to 1.
UNCLOS does provide for binding dispute resolution mechanisms,
including the submission of disputes to the International Court of
Justice (ICJ) or the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea
(ITLOS). China always has rejected a role for the ICJ in resolving the
territorial disputes in the South China Sea and, in 2006, China
exercised its right to opt out of ITLOS procedures concerning maritime
boundary delimitation and military activities.
On July 9, Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying had indicated to ASEAN
foreign ministers that China was willing to start talks on a CoC in
September. Two days later, however, as ASEAN wrangled over their final
communiqué, Foreign Minister Yang seemed to rule this out when he stated
discussions could only take place “when the time was ripe” (Straits
Times, July 11). At present ASEAN and China are not scheduled to hold
any meetings on the CoC, though officials currently are discussing joint
cooperative projects under the DoC.
If and when the two sides do sit down to discuss the CoC, it is
probable that Beijing will demand all reference to dispute resolution be
removed on the grounds that the proposed code is designed to manage
tensions only and that the dispute can only be resolved between China
and each of the other claimants on a one-on-one basis. Taken together,
these developments have dimmed seriously the prospect of China and ASEAN
reaching agreement on a viable code of conduct for the South China Sea
any time soon. As such, the status quo will continue for the foreseeable
future.
China is fiercely serious in demanding that they be allowed to have
talks with individual countries, and unless the U.S. is willing to add
to the available solutions on the table, this situation in the South
China Sea appears to be quite unwinnable, especially since Beijing has
gone with the divide and conquer model of diplomacy.
9 comments:
The US is united. The Chinese is leaderless. The party can't tell the PLA what to do, and the same in reverse. China is fracturing inside out. Chinese ships are sitting ducks for US and it's pacific allies. They make a miscalculated US's resolve to help its allies . Now they are afraid of losing face to back off. They still have time though. Arrogance will split your country apart Chinamen. Your country is held together by the writing characters only. Everything else is so different and competing for power.
China will blink first by pulling their force back and solved through the code of conduct. American force are too powerful for them to handle
Right,U.S owed China 800 billions dollars,owed Japon 230 billions dollars.owed Saudi Arabia 260 billions dollars,If China asks to pay back now American is bankruptcy.China don't have to shedblood over the pieces of freaking's sea.U.S live on borrow time
The borrower is slave to a lender this the quotation from the Bible of god.So who is blinking first in the case? America testing the water to how hot or how cold it is in SCS area,that why she is here in SCS.Water in SCS is too hot for America,that is why diplomacy is needed to calm down the tension.I wanted China to destroys Yiek cog.
Do you think so, if China asks USA to pay back the debts now and USA will be bankrupted?
If we look at the budget of USA military spending is around 600 billions of dollars a year, so it is close to 800 billions.
War has very little to do with the who owe whom money, but it can be use as a measurement for military build up and power.
If the nation does not has economic power, then it is not cable to wheel it military might.
China military is a lot stronger than Vietnam in any giving point in history. However, the US could not win the war in Vietnam, how can it able go aganst China. China has over two million troops in active duty and has over ten milion troops in reserved. If the war stared, the Chinese military could double the size with very little time because it has economic power in Asia. China has more than enough weapons destroy any country in the region, if it wants to.
According to the current issue in Syries, China has vetoed against to UN security council under,Kofi Anan,managed in recent month...
so then we still do not know exactly of what the status that China is going to do with the Syrie..
How about the South China Sea ? If China pulled back all the history in 1000 years ago related to its matter - China has more assertion right within those region - than others, especially, Ayoun couldn't claim on those two island as much as China do. Anyway did anybody know of what year that Youn has been moving to the westward ? Even today they,of course,being wanted to swallow Khmer Kandal and Lao by making these two countries into a Confederation managed by Hanoi - cf;Champa country, Khmer Krom,etc.
US just was playing their role to show up their best allied countries that would show to them only in manner within that region.
As matter of fact, all the supper-power countries they know perfectly to play their hard ball in the field such as they divided in bloc and bloc by sharing their political regime and the market to control some weaken country in order to sustain in their nation as well.
Look at youn today how bad they are since they have been created more trouble ever since to kill the whole Khmer Nation... that is not really easy but their has done quite well by Ho Chiminh, isn't it ? If khmer were to choose her boss, I recommend that she would have to pick either US or China but, not YOUN.
Right now China controlled almost all of the Khmer mineral,power of energy dam,Oil,etc.
continued from 6:08 AM
If any thing goes wrong in this entire world we never know that is the only time will tell and just awaiting one thing to happen is a "mushroom cloud " then the end of the world.
If you aware of these things will be happening in the near future and a third of human-being will be perished in the Mushroom's cloud?[NUKES ATTACKS" you're knowing some prediction from the book of revelation (Christian's Bible) that said world war III in unavoidable due hatred between Islam and Jews or infidel (Christian) infidels means anyone that doesn't believe in Allah(Muslim's god) that including Buddhism,Hinduism,Taoism all others,will be perished if Muslim control the world.
W.W.III is here now China conflicts in Asia,Arab brotherhood rules Arab's world.Its China,Russia,all Arabs nation will joint forces to destroy Israel and the West.This was predictions in the book of revelation long before America and Israel was born as a nation.Muslim nations called America "a big devil and Israel a little devil" So,America will stand with her little sister[Israel] The NUKES ATTACKS will be used if Israel think their nation in invades by all Arab nation and the king of the EAST.
I pray for all the soul that will be perished in the world war III caused by hatred tween Muslims,Jews+Christians,If it happen as prediction by prophecy,please dear lord save these souls takes these souls to a better places or to heaven with you lord...Amen!.
Young k.preacher
Very powerful message from young K.preacher...Its true though, I believe that It will happen in the future yes!...Remembered this world we live in will be destroy by fire this time.
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