Ban on Thai Politicians Set to Expire [and Thaksin could be on his way home to Thailand soon]

By Newley Purnell 

The Wall Street Journal 

May 29, 2012,

European Pressphoto Agency

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, greeting his Thai supporters during a rally in Siem Reap, Cambodia, 14 April 2012.

A five-year ban on 111 Thai politicians linked to exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is set to expire Wednesday. The potential effect that the legislators’ return could have on the government of Mr. Thaksin’s younger sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, remains unclear.

Related article: Thaksin on his way home?

The politicians and their now-defunct party, Thai Rak Thai, were banned in 2007 when the country’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that the party had violated election laws the previous year. The ruling, which came after Mr. Thaksin was overthrown in a bloodless military coup in 2006, said that the politicians had financed little-known parties to run against Thai Rak Thai, circumventing turnout rules.

“The Thai Rak Thai diaspora returns home today — so to speak,” said Sunday’s Bangkok Post, in a preview of the ban expiring Wednesday. “The 111 banned politicians wind up their five years in the wilderness and will now…well, who knows?”

Some have suggested that an influx of some of the country’s most experienced political hands may strengthen Ms. Yingluck’s party, while others argue that it could lead to internecine squabbles. One question is whether Ms. Yingluck will offer any of the returning politicians ministerial posts, and whether this could create friction within her camp.

Most of the returning 111 are skillful politicians, and “have an intimate connection with Thaksin and more importantly with the red shirt grass roots,” says Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, referring to the largely pro-Thaksin red shirt movement.

Mr. Pavin told Southeast Asia Real Time that most of the returning politicians “supported the party financially in the past” and “this will be an extra asset for the Yingluck government.” However, allowing the once-banned figures to take up new posts could create competition with existing Yingluck loyalists, he says.

Mr. Pavin said there is speculation that one of the returning men, Surakiart Sathirathai, who served as Thaksin’s foreign minister and deputy prime minister, could become Ms. Yingluck’s new foreign minister. (The current foreign minister, Surapong Tovichakchaikul, assumed the office last year.) An article in today’s Bangkok Post says that one of the banned politicians, Varathep Rattanakorn, who was Mr. Thaksin’s deputy finance minister, “is widely expected to be offered a seat in the Yingluck Shinawatra cabinet.”

Still, some wonder whether some of the banned lawmakers ever really left the political game. A May 21 article in The Nation newspaper headlined “Return of the big guns” noted that “…it has been no secret that many of Thai Rak Thai’s 111 have played politics behind the scenes through nominees, such as spouses, children, and other family members. Some key figures among the group retained their influence behind political parties legally run by politicians loyal to them.”

What does the Thai public think? The official MCOT news agency reported May 20 that a Suan Dusit Rajabhat University opinion survey asked 2,592 Thais nationwide for their views on the banned politicians’ return. Forty seven percent said Thai politics “would be the same,” 31 percent said they thought things would improve due to an influx of “competent people to help run the country,” and 20 percent said the return “could lead to another conflict.” The survey results concerning whether or not the return would aid Ms. Yingluck’s Pheu Thai party were more clear cut: 62 percent said yes, while 37 percent said no, citing potential “party disharmony.”