This file photo shows Chinese Navy vessels during military exercises. China is staging three days of military exercises in the South China Sea and plans to boost its offshore maritime patrol force, state media said, as tensions with its neighbours simmer. (AFP/XINHUA/File/Zha Chunming)
By Khmer Academy
Wednesday 22nd June, 2011
The rising tensions in South China Sea spark a renewed concern over the regional stability and global implications. Clearly, it is no longer just a matter of the territorial claims and counter-claims among neighboring countries in the region, but also a complex and dangerous arm wrestling between Eastern and Western superpowers.
Whether justified or not, the West views South China Sea tensions as China's increasing assertiveness in the region. Along with that view, the West has directly and indirectly incited the countries involved in the dispute to stand up to China. Such maneuver does not in any way contribute to a peaceful resolution; on the contrary, it only serves to escalate the tensions and hostility. It is not by coincident that some concerned countries in the region, Vietnam in particular, are already using the dispute and capitalizing on the waves of China-bashing sentiment in the West to advance their own hidden agendas.
The recent naval drill conducted by Vietnam in South China Sea has perplexed some observers and raised several interesting questions. What truly entice Vietnam to undertake such a bold and defying exercise? Given the enormous disparity between the Chinese and the Vietnamese navies, what are the real motives behind Vietnam's naval drill?
Despite its appearance of a normal or routine annual exercise, it is arguable that the drill was intentionally aimed to provoke China, with the hope to trick the latter to instigate military clashes, in which case Vietnam would stand to benefit from an outburst of international supports and sympathy. It is the same tactics used by Vietnam in the past conflicts to mobilize the international supports. From its seasoned experiences of the war against American imperialism in the 60's and the 70's, Vietnam knows full well that international supports will be its main weapon in an eventual armed confrontation with China.
More importantly, Vietnam wants to send an unequivocally clear signal that it stands ready to cooperate with U.S. militarily to counter China rising influence in the region, and that it resolutely commits to such cooperation even it means risking a full scale war with China. Obviously, such a defying move is exceedingly risky and provocative to say the least; yet for Vietnam, it’s a calculated risk and the benefits of forging an alliance with the U.S. far outweigh the risk.
A military alliance with the U.S., and hence generous U.S. military aids, would definitely allow Vietnam to modernize its aging armed forces – something it could not afford either to delay or to do on its own. Furthermore, with the U.S. on its side, Vietnam will have far better chance to claim its share of ownership over the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands. But that’s not all. There is an unpublished agenda which is far more important than the issue of Paracel and Spratly Islands ownership in Vietnam’s overall game plan.
At the fall of Saigon in 1975, Vietnam achieved one of its two sacred goals – unifying the North and the South; but failed the other – annexing Cambodia and Laos under the banner of Indochina Federation. To these days, Vietnam has not given up on that long-held goal, and bitterly viewed China as a major, if not the only, obstacle to the creation of Indochina Federation State (IFS).
Following Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1979, the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements called for a complete withdrawal of Vietnam invading troops from Cambodia, and an immediate cessation of treaties and activities deemed as a violation to Cambodia independence and territorial integrity. Despite being a signatory of the Agreements, Vietnam has yet to fully comply with the terms of the Agreements. Actually, the Vietnamization of Cambodia – demographically, politically and economically – remains as intense as it was three decades ago.
Strategically, the annexation of Cambodia by Vietnam constitutes an elevated, if not an unacceptable, threat to China’s interests and homeland security. For these reasons, the rivalry between China and Vietnam over the control of Cambodia continues to predominantly occupy the center stage of their roller-coaster relationship. Interestingly, key indications on the ground seem to suggest that Vietnam is ahead in the game. While China continues to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the concretes in Cambodia – mainly building roads, bridges and hydro-power dams – Vietnam unscrupulously and discretely maintains its tight grip on Cambodia ruling party, controlling powerful decision making bodies and coercing the Cambodian government to jail opposition lawmakers and citizens speaking out against Vietnamese interests. At present, millions of Vietnamese ethnics come to settle freely and openly in Cambodia.
Vietnam sees the dispute over the ownership of Paracel and Spratly Islands and the U.S. increasing concern over China rising influence in the region, as a golden opportunity to make a final push on its repeated attempts to annex Cambodia. Through its unusual defiance and provoking maneuver in South China Sea, Vietnam hopes to trigger muscular response from China, lure the U.S. into the conflict, and convince the Americans that it is a credible ally. If armed clashes do erupt and the China’s buildups intensify, Vietnam will have a strong case to persuade the U.S. and some Western nations that Indochina Federation State offers an effective and viable option to contain China.
With the chastening experiences in Vietnam War still haunting our collective memories, it would be unwise for the U.S. to allow itself to be pulled into the South China Sea dispute. Likewise, it would be a huge and costly mistake to consider forming an alliance with or arming Vietnam as a right solution to counter China’s expanding influence. Perhaps, it is worthwhile to remind Uncle Sam of his own advice. During his trip to China in 1971, Henry Kissinger, then National Security Adviser, failed to persuade Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai to halt or reduce Chinese assistances to the Vietnamese combatants. Frustrated, he reportedly told Zou: "One day, it will be your turn to take care of them, and you will then understand what bastards we're dealing with."
The rising tensions in South China Sea spark a renewed concern over the regional stability and global implications. Clearly, it is no longer just a matter of the territorial claims and counter-claims among neighboring countries in the region, but also a complex and dangerous arm wrestling between Eastern and Western superpowers.
Whether justified or not, the West views South China Sea tensions as China's increasing assertiveness in the region. Along with that view, the West has directly and indirectly incited the countries involved in the dispute to stand up to China. Such maneuver does not in any way contribute to a peaceful resolution; on the contrary, it only serves to escalate the tensions and hostility. It is not by coincident that some concerned countries in the region, Vietnam in particular, are already using the dispute and capitalizing on the waves of China-bashing sentiment in the West to advance their own hidden agendas.
The recent naval drill conducted by Vietnam in South China Sea has perplexed some observers and raised several interesting questions. What truly entice Vietnam to undertake such a bold and defying exercise? Given the enormous disparity between the Chinese and the Vietnamese navies, what are the real motives behind Vietnam's naval drill?
Despite its appearance of a normal or routine annual exercise, it is arguable that the drill was intentionally aimed to provoke China, with the hope to trick the latter to instigate military clashes, in which case Vietnam would stand to benefit from an outburst of international supports and sympathy. It is the same tactics used by Vietnam in the past conflicts to mobilize the international supports. From its seasoned experiences of the war against American imperialism in the 60's and the 70's, Vietnam knows full well that international supports will be its main weapon in an eventual armed confrontation with China.
More importantly, Vietnam wants to send an unequivocally clear signal that it stands ready to cooperate with U.S. militarily to counter China rising influence in the region, and that it resolutely commits to such cooperation even it means risking a full scale war with China. Obviously, such a defying move is exceedingly risky and provocative to say the least; yet for Vietnam, it’s a calculated risk and the benefits of forging an alliance with the U.S. far outweigh the risk.
A military alliance with the U.S., and hence generous U.S. military aids, would definitely allow Vietnam to modernize its aging armed forces – something it could not afford either to delay or to do on its own. Furthermore, with the U.S. on its side, Vietnam will have far better chance to claim its share of ownership over the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands. But that’s not all. There is an unpublished agenda which is far more important than the issue of Paracel and Spratly Islands ownership in Vietnam’s overall game plan.
At the fall of Saigon in 1975, Vietnam achieved one of its two sacred goals – unifying the North and the South; but failed the other – annexing Cambodia and Laos under the banner of Indochina Federation. To these days, Vietnam has not given up on that long-held goal, and bitterly viewed China as a major, if not the only, obstacle to the creation of Indochina Federation State (IFS).
Following Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1979, the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements called for a complete withdrawal of Vietnam invading troops from Cambodia, and an immediate cessation of treaties and activities deemed as a violation to Cambodia independence and territorial integrity. Despite being a signatory of the Agreements, Vietnam has yet to fully comply with the terms of the Agreements. Actually, the Vietnamization of Cambodia – demographically, politically and economically – remains as intense as it was three decades ago.
Strategically, the annexation of Cambodia by Vietnam constitutes an elevated, if not an unacceptable, threat to China’s interests and homeland security. For these reasons, the rivalry between China and Vietnam over the control of Cambodia continues to predominantly occupy the center stage of their roller-coaster relationship. Interestingly, key indications on the ground seem to suggest that Vietnam is ahead in the game. While China continues to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the concretes in Cambodia – mainly building roads, bridges and hydro-power dams – Vietnam unscrupulously and discretely maintains its tight grip on Cambodia ruling party, controlling powerful decision making bodies and coercing the Cambodian government to jail opposition lawmakers and citizens speaking out against Vietnamese interests. At present, millions of Vietnamese ethnics come to settle freely and openly in Cambodia.
Vietnam sees the dispute over the ownership of Paracel and Spratly Islands and the U.S. increasing concern over China rising influence in the region, as a golden opportunity to make a final push on its repeated attempts to annex Cambodia. Through its unusual defiance and provoking maneuver in South China Sea, Vietnam hopes to trigger muscular response from China, lure the U.S. into the conflict, and convince the Americans that it is a credible ally. If armed clashes do erupt and the China’s buildups intensify, Vietnam will have a strong case to persuade the U.S. and some Western nations that Indochina Federation State offers an effective and viable option to contain China.
With the chastening experiences in Vietnam War still haunting our collective memories, it would be unwise for the U.S. to allow itself to be pulled into the South China Sea dispute. Likewise, it would be a huge and costly mistake to consider forming an alliance with or arming Vietnam as a right solution to counter China’s expanding influence. Perhaps, it is worthwhile to remind Uncle Sam of his own advice. During his trip to China in 1971, Henry Kissinger, then National Security Adviser, failed to persuade Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai to halt or reduce Chinese assistances to the Vietnamese combatants. Frustrated, he reportedly told Zou: "One day, it will be your turn to take care of them, and you will then understand what bastards we're dealing with."
9 comments:
Don't back down with viet-leech! Flexing your mighty fang red dragon on viet-leech...I support you 100%! Go China! Go China! Go China! Wipe Out viet-leech from koh tral island...
I KNOW CHINA CAN KILLED ONLY THEIR OWN PEOPLE AND TAKE OVER MONG GOLLIA THAT ONLY MONK LIVING OVER THERE.
We're with you all the way, my brother Chinese.
Pi Anh
According to Buddha prophecy; one day the eight powerful nations meet at the 4 faces river for battle; this is the end of the world. I am feeling the prediction is shaping up into WWWIII. Although, the prediction of Cambodian fate had came true in 1975 as predicted. The matter of as fact it came precisely as it was predicted. It is scary to read it. I am not sure which 8 nations involve but it stated 8 nations and the savior is from the West to stop it at the end to save mankind. I am not sure if it refer to the new Buddha (Meitreya). According to the Buddha prophercy that are 5 buddha govern human existing on this earth. We went through 4 Buddha already. The current Buddha; his time will end in year 5000; we are half of his time (2555 years of Buddha). Meitreya Buddha time is overlapse with the current Buddha which gave him time to come to earth and reshape his religion until his day to govern. I know, these are just prophercy but many faiths predicted the judgement day is near. If this war drag everybody in, then it could be the end of time.
China, kill all of Vietcong. They are dishonest people on earth. Cambodia tried to help them to fight against American and they gained independent North and South. They try to put Cambodia under their. territory.
They kill many of Cambodian.
Karma will happen to youn in next days.
In 2010, USA already warned China about the spratly islands. I am almost sure that USA will probably going to side with Vietnam but they probably very cautious at what they are doing. We could have world war III if people doesnt find peaceful way to deal with the issue. I am sure who is living in those islands but if there are people living there, then they should be the owner or independence to govern whatever treasure available. It will be hard for people to claim it by themselves. WWWIII is lurking people. Could it be possible that end of time is near. Someone mentioned to me that big war will start from the EAST. Here we are..
don't forget that during the Pol Pot regime, both the Chinese and the Viet killed Khmer. The only different is the Chinese is further the Viet is next door to us.
Viet, killed more khmers, no doubt
however, chinese can easily wipe out Viet.
even, Viet asked in'l communities to get involve.
The last time Cambodia sided with China, 2 million Cambodian lost their lives. Cambodia is advised not to stand on the wrong side of history this time. Vietnam+Laos+Cambodia=Greater Vietnam. Vietnam muon nam!
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