Thursday, April 21, 2011 Op-Ed by Timothy Chhim Originally posted at http://timothychhim.blogspot.com
The banner in the background in Khmer says: True Democracy!
The battles have begun, but who will win the war?
There are 28 months to go for the next general election to be held in July 2013. Cambodia’s Democrats or the non-CPP political parties have begun their series of fighting to become the number 2 spot.
Some leaders of the oppositions are hoping to become Hun Sen’s partner in the next Cambodian government. It is one of the promises used to string along those gullible members who can come up with large sum of money.
The hot battle this month is the struggle for Kg Cham’s province where verbal artillery between Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy had been launched. Cell phone or personal discussions are unsuitable; thus, both leaders exchanged their punches via open mails.
Kampong Cham belong to top leaders of all parties. Kem Sokha ran as the number one candidate in 2008 and “won” without having to spend much of his own money. The person who spent most money in that province didn’t win and subsequently defected to the CPP. If you could ask him about the democratic processes inside HRP, he would tell you how much he needed to spend to be listed as a top ranking candidate in that province.
Kampong Cham is the most populated province in Cambodia. It is one of SRP’s strongholds
besides Phnom Penh where SRP also holds 5 seats.
besides Phnom Penh where SRP also holds 5 seats.18 congressional seats will be up for grab in 28 months. For this mandate, the CPP holds 11 seats, SRP 5, NRP 1 and HRP 1.
CPP’s big gunners Heng Samrin and Hor Namhong and 9 others are in Kampong Cham making this province a must win for the CPP. Meanwhile Sam Rainsy, Kem Sokha and You Hokry, the heavyweight from the Non-CPP parties, are struggling to maintain their presence there. Every ones are hoping to maintain their current seat or to win more votes in July of 2013.
There is a slim chance for non-CPP parties to get more votes from the CPP’s members; hence, it is easier for Kem Sokha to target SRP’s voters, especially when this party’s leaders are in trouble with the CPP.
It is necessarily for HRP to push for a few thousands more votes to get an additional seat. Otherwise, there will be no chance for others besides Kem Sokha to pay for the campaign in Kg Cham. In 2008, HRP got 72,772 votes and won only one seat. Some 30,000 votes were wasted.
The Absence of Sam Rainsy from Kg Cham may have contributed to the internal or personal fighting that caused Mao Monyvan to be expelled and later on defected to the so-called “true Democratic Party.” People may wonder if there is such a true Democratic Party, then the rest of Democrats are the fake ones.
In 2013, Mao Monyvan will probably be appointed “democratically” by Kem Sokha to run in Kg Cham. More than likely he will be listed as one of the top candidates for he claims that most of SRP members will follow him. It would be interesting to know what will happen to those hopeful HRP candidates who have already been promised to be listed as one of the top contenders as well.
According to RFA news, the recent reception held by Kem Sokha in Kg Cham before the Cambodian New Year brought in about 500 new members for HRP. They were not all SRP members. It was included those dubious “hidden members” from the ruling party and other parties.
Why such a small number if the majority of SRP members in Kampong Cham were so unhappy about Sam Rainsy? Was it because of the Khmer Rouge styled system (accused by Mao Monyvan) that made SRP members decided not to defect en mass?
As reported by Soy Sopheap, there were about 90 percents of SRP signs were supposedly bought down. People may scratch their head for there must be something wrong with the above figure.
What Party the CPP would use to break up SRP?
The CPP’s interest is to see the fight goes on; especially, between the “true” Democratic and the “fake” ones. The best party for the CPP to support or employ in the fight against SRP is HRP. It knows that Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy will never get along. NRP and FUN are already tainted as CPP’s allies. Some clues are found with Soy Sopheap’s suggestion to Kem Sokha and to Mao Monyvan as seen on Bayon TV’s Special program recently. Please click here.
If the CPP and HRP succeed in chopping down SRP, HRP will not hesitate to become a partner of the CPP in the next Cambodian government. This will leave SRP to remain the biggest opposition for the next 5 years.
While the battles between the so-called True Democratic Party and the fake ones go on, the real winner in the political warfare will be the CPP.
CPP’s big gunners Heng Samrin and Hor Namhong and 9 others are in Kampong Cham making this province a must win for the CPP. Meanwhile Sam Rainsy, Kem Sokha and You Hokry, the heavyweight from the Non-CPP parties, are struggling to maintain their presence there. Every ones are hoping to maintain their current seat or to win more votes in July of 2013.
There is a slim chance for non-CPP parties to get more votes from the CPP’s members; hence, it is easier for Kem Sokha to target SRP’s voters, especially when this party’s leaders are in trouble with the CPP.
It is necessarily for HRP to push for a few thousands more votes to get an additional seat. Otherwise, there will be no chance for others besides Kem Sokha to pay for the campaign in Kg Cham. In 2008, HRP got 72,772 votes and won only one seat. Some 30,000 votes were wasted.
The Absence of Sam Rainsy from Kg Cham may have contributed to the internal or personal fighting that caused Mao Monyvan to be expelled and later on defected to the so-called “true Democratic Party.” People may wonder if there is such a true Democratic Party, then the rest of Democrats are the fake ones.
In 2013, Mao Monyvan will probably be appointed “democratically” by Kem Sokha to run in Kg Cham. More than likely he will be listed as one of the top candidates for he claims that most of SRP members will follow him. It would be interesting to know what will happen to those hopeful HRP candidates who have already been promised to be listed as one of the top contenders as well.
According to RFA news, the recent reception held by Kem Sokha in Kg Cham before the Cambodian New Year brought in about 500 new members for HRP. They were not all SRP members. It was included those dubious “hidden members” from the ruling party and other parties.
Why such a small number if the majority of SRP members in Kampong Cham were so unhappy about Sam Rainsy? Was it because of the Khmer Rouge styled system (accused by Mao Monyvan) that made SRP members decided not to defect en mass?
As reported by Soy Sopheap, there were about 90 percents of SRP signs were supposedly bought down. People may scratch their head for there must be something wrong with the above figure.
What Party the CPP would use to break up SRP?
The CPP’s interest is to see the fight goes on; especially, between the “true” Democratic and the “fake” ones. The best party for the CPP to support or employ in the fight against SRP is HRP. It knows that Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy will never get along. NRP and FUN are already tainted as CPP’s allies. Some clues are found with Soy Sopheap’s suggestion to Kem Sokha and to Mao Monyvan as seen on Bayon TV’s Special program recently. Please click here.
If the CPP and HRP succeed in chopping down SRP, HRP will not hesitate to become a partner of the CPP in the next Cambodian government. This will leave SRP to remain the biggest opposition for the next 5 years.
While the battles between the so-called True Democratic Party and the fake ones go on, the real winner in the political warfare will be the CPP.
No comments:
Post a Comment