Gambling on the Future

You can bet on anything at online prediction markets, from the outcome of the Presidential race to the price of gas. The equivalent in Phnom Penh is up a dark and dirty concrete staircase, on a side street behind O’Russei Market. Walk up four flights, pass a gate guarded by three little girls, and step through someone’s kitchen at the end of the hall. You’ll find a gambling den with a penthouse view.

The Cambodians who gather there are known to bet on anything—they lay money on how much it will rain on a given day—but they didn’t wager on the winner of the American Presidential election. “We don’t know enough about it,” a woman who works there said. Even outside the betting parlor, Cambodia seems to be untouched by global Obamamania; according to Gallup’s poll of seventy-three countries, only India and Pakistan were more indifferent to the election.

I wanted to know more about the Cambodian futures markets, but the proprietors started getting pretty angry with my questions. “Who sent you here?” a man demanded, interrupting his tea to move toward me. Two big lugs followed me out, and the little girls locked the gate behind me.

I wish I could have put money down on Obama. I had a hunch.