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Cambodians head to the polls two
days from now as Prime Minister Hun Sen looks to extend his 28-year rule in one of Asia’s poorest countries that has yet to see
a peaceful transfer of power.
His Cambodian People’s Party faces an opposition led by Sam Rainsy, who returned July 19 to cheering crowds after a royal
pardon for charges he says were politically motivated and kept
him in exile for four years. The CPP has run the country since
Vietnam ousted the Khmer Rouge in 1979, with Hun Sen serving as
prime minister in various coalitions since 1985, making him
Asia’s second-longest serving leader.
The victor will need to boost growth in Southeast Asia’s
third-smallest economy after Timor-Leste and Laos fast enough to
create jobs for one of the region’s youngest countries, where
more than half the 15 million people are under the age of 24.
Hun Sen, 60, a former Khmer Rouge guerrilla who later fought
against the regime, has faced criticism for persecuting
political foes while overseeing a period of stability that has
attracted companies such as General Electric Co. (GE), Sumitomo Corp. (8053)
and DuPont Co.
“The most likely scenario is that he’s returned with a
smaller majority, which will give a signal to the government
that improving governance standards are expected by voters,”
said Douglas Clayton, founder and chief executive officer of
Leopard Capital, which has investments in Cambodia. “The voter
base is changing as younger people enter the voting age, and
Cambodia can’t stand still.”
One of the biggest impediments to reaping investments from
high-technology industries is improving the skillset of the
young workforce, according to Daniel Mitchell, a board member of
the American Cambodian Business Council who has done business in
the country for more than a decade.
Youth Unemployment
“Youth unemployment continues to be an issue -- it has
more potential for social unrest than any of the human rights
issues,” said Mitchell, chief executive officer of SRP
International Group Ltd., an investment and advisory firm.
“Longer term this is one that has the government’s attention --
this is the one that people will vote on.”
About 9.7 million voters who are at least 18 years old will
pick between eight parties to fill 123 seats in the lower house,
according to the National Election Committee. Polls will be open
from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Hun Sen’s party won 90 of 123 seats in the last election in
2008, which the U.S. called an “improvement” over previous
votes. Government spokesman Phay Siphan earlier this month said
he’s “100 percent” certain the CPP will return to power even
as the opposition is poised to add to its existing 29 seats.
Sam Rainsy
King Norodom Sihamoni pardoned Sam Rainsy, 64, earlier this
month following a request from Hun Sen. While the move helped
neutralize criticism over Sam Rainsy’s exile, he is banned from
standing in the election because he failed to register as a
candidate in time, Xinhua reported July 22.
In an interview last month, Sam Rainsy warned of violence
if fraud taints the election. He has sought to capitalize on
increasing disputes over workers rights, the environment and
land clearing by pledging to double the minimum monthly wage to
$150 for factory workers and increase civil servant salaries.
Hun Sen said last month the country’s garment and textile
factories, which employ about 450,000 people, could shift to
nearby countries like Laos and Myanmar if workers protest for
higher wages. The industry accounted for about 80 percent of the
country’s exports last year, according to data from the Garment
Manufacturers Association in Cambodia.
Cambodia’s economy grew 7.2 percent last year on higher
consumption and investment, the Asian Development Bank said in
April. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand at the same
pace this year and 7.5 percent in 2014 as the U.S. and Europe
buy more Cambodia-made garments and footwear, the ADB said.
Better Off
While credible opinion polls are lacking in the country, a
majority canvassed by the U.S. government-funded International
Republican Institute in a survey published in May said they were
better off than in 2008. The poll of 2,000 people conducted Jan.
12 to Feb. 2 had a margin of error of 2.2 percent.
The survey found that 79 percent of respondents thought the
country was heading in the right direction, up from 77 percent
in February 2008, because more roads and schools were built. The
21 percent who said the country was heading in the wrong
direction cited corruption, illegal immigration and nepotism as
reasons, according to the poll.
Land disputes and forced evictions “continue unabated”
and have led to clashes, the United Nations human rights office
said in a report last year. Many activists and journalists who
defend human rights fear for their lives, it said.
While Hun Sen faces opposition among more educated people
in bigger cities, he’s popular enough in rural areas to win
another term, according to David Chandler, an emeritus professor
at Australia’s Monash University.
“The CPP has the money, the organization and the people in
place, plus the backing up of the police and army if they
need,” Chandler said. “People vote for the party that gives
them something, and Sam Rainsy hasn’t given them anything.”
To contact the reporter on this story:
Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at
dtenkate@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Rosalind Mathieson at
rmathieson3@bloomberg.net
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